The Astros signed Darin Erstad to a $1M contract as a lefthanded bat off the bench.
The Transaction Oracle is too kind.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Oh, Havana, I've been searching for you everywhere
The White Sox signed Cuban exile Alexei Ramirez, who adds entertainment value to spring training by not having a pre-defined defensive position. A star in Cuban professional baseball, Ramirez supposedly can play second, short, and the outfield. Nobody really knows whether he can hit in the majors; Baseball Prospectus thinks the top Cuban league is akin to short-season A ball (that is, the Sally League). Given that Ramirez is 26 and has only faced serious competition in international tournaments, it's tough to expect anything from him except an option to AA.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
We Never Really Knew Each Other Anyway
Call it sour grapes if you want, but I'm kind of relieved the White Sox failed to land Torii Hunter, Aaron Rowand, Miguel Cabrera, and to a lesser extent, Kosuke Fukudome.
Hunter and Rowand don't project to be worth the money they're being paid. Rowand in particular raised polite oh-dear-god remarks from analysts. Considering that his projected ZIPs numbers aren't really any better than Brian Anderson's projected statistics from PECOTA last year (before the Grinderstad spring training incident and the injury), paying him a guaranteed $60M would have been nuts. I don't know which of Goldilocks, or Jerry Owens, or Ryan Sweeney will outhit Rowand over the next five years, but I bet one of them will, and they all might. I'm comfortable with giving them a chance.
Paying Hunter 50% more than that would have been even more nuts. Torii Hunter is a good center fielder, but dear God that is a lot of Arte Moreno's dinero for a team that already has one overpaid centerfielder with years left on his contract...
And God knows the price for Cabrera was too much to pay, as the Tigers will find out when AARP calls for their lineup in a couple of years.
Fukudome is a tougher call, but we don't actually know if he was even capable of playing a major league center field; a lot of the White Sox buzz tacitly assumed he could step in and play a solid center, and maybe his selection of the Cubs was partly his way of saying, "No, I can't."
Hunter and Rowand don't project to be worth the money they're being paid. Rowand in particular raised polite oh-dear-god remarks from analysts. Considering that his projected ZIPs numbers aren't really any better than Brian Anderson's projected statistics from PECOTA last year (before the Grinderstad spring training incident and the injury), paying him a guaranteed $60M would have been nuts. I don't know which of Goldilocks, or Jerry Owens, or Ryan Sweeney will outhit Rowand over the next five years, but I bet one of them will, and they all might. I'm comfortable with giving them a chance.
Paying Hunter 50% more than that would have been even more nuts. Torii Hunter is a good center fielder, but dear God that is a lot of Arte Moreno's dinero for a team that already has one overpaid centerfielder with years left on his contract...
And God knows the price for Cabrera was too much to pay, as the Tigers will find out when AARP calls for their lineup in a couple of years.
Fukudome is a tougher call, but we don't actually know if he was even capable of playing a major league center field; a lot of the White Sox buzz tacitly assumed he could step in and play a solid center, and maybe his selection of the Cubs was partly his way of saying, "No, I can't."
Friday, December 07, 2007
So put another record on...
A lot of people love the Tiger deal.
One Tiger fan ran the numbers using Cyril Morong et al's lineup analyzer, which is a fun (if tedious) toy. They got a "tasty" 5.831 runs per game number.
5.831 runs per game is good, almost 950 runs. It's wrong, of course, because of the unstated fallacy that Cabrera (or anyone's) National League numbers translate to the AL. Put in the NL-to-AL translations for Miguel Cabrera and Jacque Jones (per Nate Silver), and you get a sharp drop from 5.831 to a still-good 5.658:
I ran the same numbers using the same source projections (Bill James) for current White Sox hitters (Note: These load real slow!) and got 5.300 runs per game. (Brian Anderson gives about the same result.) I'd be thrilled with this at this point, that's about 850 runs. (It doesn't matter a lot who plays center field. So let's say you put in Fukudome at .375/.500. The mill grinds away and says 5.554 runs per game, an increase of about 40 runs a season. You put BA or RS in center and you get about the same as with Owens.)
The problem is the estimator is, of course, sensitive to your guesses for OBA and SLG. I tweak the numbers a little without making them seem at all "fake" and I get the offense up to 5.580 runs per game:
As for the Tigers, put in some accelerated age-related decline for their geezers and you can get to 5.528.
Yeah, that's right, I said geezers. Their average lineup age is going to be about 32 years old. Gary Sheffield is going to be 39. Granderson and Cabrera are their youth, at least until they make a trade.
So if I put my thumb on the scale ONLY SLIGHTLY I get comparable offenses. (The ballparks aren't really comparable, of course, but never mind that).
One Tiger fan ran the numbers using Cyril Morong et al's lineup analyzer, which is a fun (if tedious) toy. They got a "tasty" 5.831 runs per game number.
5.831 runs per game is good, almost 950 runs. It's wrong, of course, because of the unstated fallacy that Cabrera (or anyone's) National League numbers translate to the AL. Put in the NL-to-AL translations for Miguel Cabrera and Jacque Jones (per Nate Silver), and you get a sharp drop from 5.831 to a still-good 5.658:
I ran the same numbers using the same source projections (Bill James) for current White Sox hitters (Note: These load real slow!) and got 5.300 runs per game. (Brian Anderson gives about the same result.) I'd be thrilled with this at this point, that's about 850 runs. (It doesn't matter a lot who plays center field. So let's say you put in Fukudome at .375/.500. The mill grinds away and says 5.554 runs per game, an increase of about 40 runs a season. You put BA or RS in center and you get about the same as with Owens.)
The problem is the estimator is, of course, sensitive to your guesses for OBA and SLG. I tweak the numbers a little without making them seem at all "fake" and I get the offense up to 5.580 runs per game:
As for the Tigers, put in some accelerated age-related decline for their geezers and you can get to 5.528.
Yeah, that's right, I said geezers. Their average lineup age is going to be about 32 years old. Gary Sheffield is going to be 39. Granderson and Cabrera are their youth, at least until they make a trade.
So if I put my thumb on the scale ONLY SLIGHTLY I get comparable offenses. (The ballparks aren't really comparable, of course, but never mind that).
Monday, December 03, 2007
He captured it and brought it home
Acquired, for minor league DH-to-be Chris Carter, Snakes' former top prospect Carlos Quentin...
I know Black Betsy is really high on Carter, and maybe with good reason, but right-handed players who play first base in A ball should have huge warning signs on them (since, if they are any kind of athlete, they'll be at third or in the outfield).
So I looked at Carter's minor league fielding statistics, and what did I see? A .977 fielding percentage at first base, which is otherwise known as "Dr. Stoneglove". (Frank Thomas' minor league fielding percentage was about
.987...) While Mike Ward would have loved ripping the poor guy a new one twice a week, I don't want to think about it.
Carter has already been used as a DH in the Sally League, because he can't play defense. So Kenny got a LF from the Snakes -- made extraneous by the Byrnes signing -- for a minor league DH.
As for Quentin, he's a stud prospect who lost his luster in a couple of injury-plagued seasons. Runs adequately (not good enough to play center), righthanded power hitter, threw OK before his injuries... kind of like BA with a penchant for being hit by pitches, more power, more raw talent, and somewhat less fielding ability. Can't play center -- he's a corner outfielder.
This is a very good deal for the White Sox.
I know Black Betsy is really high on Carter, and maybe with good reason, but right-handed players who play first base in A ball should have huge warning signs on them (since, if they are any kind of athlete, they'll be at third or in the outfield).
So I looked at Carter's minor league fielding statistics, and what did I see? A .977 fielding percentage at first base, which is otherwise known as "Dr. Stoneglove". (Frank Thomas' minor league fielding percentage was about
.987...) While Mike Ward would have loved ripping the poor guy a new one twice a week, I don't want to think about it.
Carter has already been used as a DH in the Sally League, because he can't play defense. So Kenny got a LF from the Snakes -- made extraneous by the Byrnes signing -- for a minor league DH.
As for Quentin, he's a stud prospect who lost his luster in a couple of injury-plagued seasons. Runs adequately (not good enough to play center), righthanded power hitter, threw OK before his injuries... kind of like BA with a penchant for being hit by pitches, more power, more raw talent, and somewhat less fielding ability. Can't play center -- he's a corner outfielder.
This is a very good deal for the White Sox.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
You can shine like silver all you want
So Scott Linebrink's signing is sending shock waves through the industry. Right. Give me a break. Giving him 4/$19M is pretty stupid, but where's the outrage over the enormous pile of cash handed out to Coco Cordero at about the same time? Or the Angels' overcall bid for Torii Hunter after another overcall bid for Gary Matthews Jr last year? Where's the outrage of Boras and A-Rod cheating on the performance-clause ban, which is far more dangerous and earth-shattering?
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Fish, he got a hook in his throat
Scott Linebrink reportedly negotiating with the White Sox for four years and nineteen million dollars...
Linebrink is not a leak-type reliever, he's a burst-type reliever. What I mean by that is his usual game is a scoreless inning, but once in a while, oh my God. In 71 appearances last year, he posted scoreless innings or more in 52 of them, and one or fewer runs in 62 of them. A four spot, three threes, and five twos inflated his ERA. He tends to do this from time to time. He does finish what he starts and he doesn't bleed runs. That's what you get with a setup man.
Chicago fans aren't really tolerant of the burst-type reliever, so this should end well. Yeah.
Linebrink is not a leak-type reliever, he's a burst-type reliever. What I mean by that is his usual game is a scoreless inning, but once in a while, oh my God. In 71 appearances last year, he posted scoreless innings or more in 52 of them, and one or fewer runs in 62 of them. A four spot, three threes, and five twos inflated his ERA. He tends to do this from time to time. He does finish what he starts and he doesn't bleed runs. That's what you get with a setup man.
Chicago fans aren't really tolerant of the burst-type reliever, so this should end well. Yeah.
Let's toast the hero with blood in his eyes
So Torii hunter is an Angel, for five years and ninety million dollars.
Wow. Of course, congratulations to Hunter, who now will be able to serve his dogs their food on antique china if he feels like it.
And congratulations to Kenny Williams, who was saved from himself. A close bidding war might have created a situation where the White Sox, who don't need an aging centerfielder to add to their aging first baseman and DH, could have gone to seventy million for Hunter. By blowing away the field (what used to be called "pulling a Tom Hicks") the Angels managed to, in one swoop, make their fifty million dollar centerfielder from last off-season (with a no-trade clause) redundant, and possibly raise the going rate for centerfielders by four million a year for no good reason.
Wow. Of course, congratulations to Hunter, who now will be able to serve his dogs their food on antique china if he feels like it.
And congratulations to Kenny Williams, who was saved from himself. A close bidding war might have created a situation where the White Sox, who don't need an aging centerfielder to add to their aging first baseman and DH, could have gone to seventy million for Hunter. By blowing away the field (what used to be called "pulling a Tom Hicks") the Angels managed to, in one swoop, make their fifty million dollar centerfielder from last off-season (with a no-trade clause) redundant, and possibly raise the going rate for centerfielders by four million a year for no good reason.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
To know how it feels when the universe reels...
Item: The White Sox traded John Garland to the Angels for Orlando Cabrera and, apparently, $1.5 million. Both Garland and Cabrera will be eligible for free agency after 2008. Garland is owed $12 million next year, and Cabrera, $9 million.
After careful consiration, I come down in favor.
First, the White Sox aren't really going to contend in 2008, or 2009 for that matter, unless Miracles Occur. So one question really is, are you more comfortable hoping for miracles with Gio, Egbert, Broadway, and Danks, or with Sweeney, Anderson, Owens, and Richar? I know what I think. The ONLY real assets the White Sox have in the minors worth talking about (at least above A ball, that is) are a handful of starting pitchers. They have few position player prospects ready that I trust. They simply have to trade pitching for position players because otherwise they'll be PLAYING pitchers at positions.
Second, there is the matter of public perception. The White Sox can get away with hoping for Gio et al because, at least two to three times a week, they will still put a veteran major league pitcher on the mound, and more if Contreras can bounce back. But the everyday lineup is there EVERY DAY, and putting Andy Gonzalez and Richar and Owens and Cintron on the field is just brutal. Those guys shouldn't be in the majors, let alone occupying a significant chunk of your roster. In these days of four-man benches, these guys will play a lot. So you, the fan, can't even pick and choose which games to watch because they are *all* bad. The White Sox can't afford to risk that financially.
Third, there is the "message" with the free agent CFs the White Sox are allegedly courting. (I'll believe it when I see a signing.) "We're going to put a veteran defense behind young pitching" is a selling point. "We're going with D-list position player prospects but keeping JG for an extra year" isn't. Everybody in baseball knows Garland is gone after 2008. Whether OC won't be re-signed is open to doubt.
Finally, Cabrera is 33 but otherwise he is the kind of player I think you should be glad to see Kenny picking up. He's a defensive plus. He's smart. He stays healthy. Yeah, he's 33, but he's not Omar Vizquel, and he's tied down for one and only one year, and the problem with old players isn't the next year, it's the next four. Even if he turns into a giant crater, the pain will be over in 10 months anyway.
Garland will be missed, sure. But the relief of not being blinded by the uglier alternatives is probably worth it.
By the way, John... thanks for 2005.
After careful consiration, I come down in favor.
First, the White Sox aren't really going to contend in 2008, or 2009 for that matter, unless Miracles Occur. So one question really is, are you more comfortable hoping for miracles with Gio, Egbert, Broadway, and Danks, or with Sweeney, Anderson, Owens, and Richar? I know what I think. The ONLY real assets the White Sox have in the minors worth talking about (at least above A ball, that is) are a handful of starting pitchers. They have few position player prospects ready that I trust. They simply have to trade pitching for position players because otherwise they'll be PLAYING pitchers at positions.
Second, there is the matter of public perception. The White Sox can get away with hoping for Gio et al because, at least two to three times a week, they will still put a veteran major league pitcher on the mound, and more if Contreras can bounce back. But the everyday lineup is there EVERY DAY, and putting Andy Gonzalez and Richar and Owens and Cintron on the field is just brutal. Those guys shouldn't be in the majors, let alone occupying a significant chunk of your roster. In these days of four-man benches, these guys will play a lot. So you, the fan, can't even pick and choose which games to watch because they are *all* bad. The White Sox can't afford to risk that financially.
Third, there is the "message" with the free agent CFs the White Sox are allegedly courting. (I'll believe it when I see a signing.) "We're going to put a veteran defense behind young pitching" is a selling point. "We're going with D-list position player prospects but keeping JG for an extra year" isn't. Everybody in baseball knows Garland is gone after 2008. Whether OC won't be re-signed is open to doubt.
Finally, Cabrera is 33 but otherwise he is the kind of player I think you should be glad to see Kenny picking up. He's a defensive plus. He's smart. He stays healthy. Yeah, he's 33, but he's not Omar Vizquel, and he's tied down for one and only one year, and the problem with old players isn't the next year, it's the next four. Even if he turns into a giant crater, the pain will be over in 10 months anyway.
Garland will be missed, sure. But the relief of not being blinded by the uglier alternatives is probably worth it.
By the way, John... thanks for 2005.
Friday, October 19, 2007
It's been such a long time
The last time I posted, the White Sox were watching the Tigers win their division, waiting for next year...
A year later, the White Sox have imploded, with every one of Baseball Prospectus' worst predictions having come true.
The spiral was hard to take -- so hard that yours truly couldn't bring himself to post a word about it here.
So, Johnny's spent his time in the sanitarium, cleaning up the razor wounds, and it's time to pick up the thread as the White Sox try to arrest their decline.
Anxiously waiting the first transaction,
I am,
Your obedient servant,
Johnny Mostil's Razor
A year later, the White Sox have imploded, with every one of Baseball Prospectus' worst predictions having come true.
The spiral was hard to take -- so hard that yours truly couldn't bring himself to post a word about it here.
So, Johnny's spent his time in the sanitarium, cleaning up the razor wounds, and it's time to pick up the thread as the White Sox try to arrest their decline.
Anxiously waiting the first transaction,
I am,
Your obedient servant,
Johnny Mostil's Razor
Sunday, October 15, 2006
Somebody else's baby
The Detroit Tigers are in the World Series. Every White Sox fan knows it could've easily been the White Sox.
Ultimately, the 2006 White Sox died from neglect. Not from the bullpen, not from the starting pitching, not from the unexpected bad luck of sharing a division with a couple of teams on Missions from God.
They died because, in his haste to cement a second championship team, Kenny Williams forgot to have any backup plans. When Brian Anderson struggled at the plate, there was no major league caliber option to back him up. When Scott Podsednik struggled at the plate and in the field, there was no option to replace him except Pablo Ozuna.
They died because of gratitude. When the bullpen struggled, blood flowed, and Riske and McDougal were brought in to (mostly) stem the bleeding -- but not until Cliff Politte got 30 innings to blow multiple ballgames before earning his release. One has to think that Podsednik not being replaced had more to do with his homer off Brad Lidge last October than any realistic assessment of his contributions. His defensive drop-off made him possibly the worst regular position player in the league.
They died because of stubbornness. Boone Logan got far more opportunities to show he wasn't ready that any rationality justified. Anderson, despite his manifest problems hitting lefty pitching, was platooned, deepening his slump. The use of Cotts and Logan as LOOGys despite poor performance in that specific role was stubbornly repeated.
Now comes the offseason, the great time to blog because, well, you can't be proven wrong for six months.
Good luck to the Tigers. But we all can't help but think it shoulda been our time again. In baseball, unless you're the Yankees, the opportunity not seized doesn't usually come again for a long time.
Ultimately, the 2006 White Sox died from neglect. Not from the bullpen, not from the starting pitching, not from the unexpected bad luck of sharing a division with a couple of teams on Missions from God.
They died because, in his haste to cement a second championship team, Kenny Williams forgot to have any backup plans. When Brian Anderson struggled at the plate, there was no major league caliber option to back him up. When Scott Podsednik struggled at the plate and in the field, there was no option to replace him except Pablo Ozuna.
They died because of gratitude. When the bullpen struggled, blood flowed, and Riske and McDougal were brought in to (mostly) stem the bleeding -- but not until Cliff Politte got 30 innings to blow multiple ballgames before earning his release. One has to think that Podsednik not being replaced had more to do with his homer off Brad Lidge last October than any realistic assessment of his contributions. His defensive drop-off made him possibly the worst regular position player in the league.
They died because of stubbornness. Boone Logan got far more opportunities to show he wasn't ready that any rationality justified. Anderson, despite his manifest problems hitting lefty pitching, was platooned, deepening his slump. The use of Cotts and Logan as LOOGys despite poor performance in that specific role was stubbornly repeated.
Now comes the offseason, the great time to blog because, well, you can't be proven wrong for six months.
Good luck to the Tigers. But we all can't help but think it shoulda been our time again. In baseball, unless you're the Yankees, the opportunity not seized doesn't usually come again for a long time.
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
Capitalize on this good forture
When Joe Crede broke his finger last year, he was a lifetime .251/.300/.428 hitter. Given the high expectations, that would officially qualify as a major disappointment.
Since he came off the DL on September 10, 2005, Joe Crede has now played in 85 games. In that span he's hit .320/.354/.560.
Here's one way of looking at it: double his last 81 games and you get:
.312
34 homers
118 RBI
28 walks (nobody is perfect)
Since he came off the DL on September 10, 2005, Joe Crede has now played in 85 games. In that span he's hit .320/.354/.560.
Here's one way of looking at it: double his last 81 games and you get:
.312
34 homers
118 RBI
28 walks (nobody is perfect)
Saturday, June 10, 2006
Suffer not your neighbor's affliction
As midnight approached on May 27, the Detroit Tigers were coming off a win off the Indians and were an incredible 35-14. Virtually everything was going right for the team, easily leading the league in ERA and scoring runs in bunches. One more game against the Indians, who they'd been dominating, followed by stretch against the Yankees, Boston, the White Sox, and Toronto, gave the Tigers an opportunity to quiet the last naysayers.
The Tigers have now gone 3-9 in the last 12 games, being outscored 70-42. Three things have gone wrong for the Tigers:
Indians followers are amazed at the team's floudering at 29-31. "With all that talent," they ask, "how can they be under .500?" The answer, of course, is that the pitching staff isn't the same one they had last year, and in virtually every case, the replacement in 2006 is worse than the 2005 role-player. It hasn't helped that Cliff Lee has regressed to ordinary, but Paul Byrd and Jason Johnson simply haven't pitched well, and the smoke-and-mirrors 2005 bullpen is scattered and the replacement just hasn't gelled. From the perspective of a White Sox fan, the Indians' decision to use Aaron Boone at third and the Broussard/Blake hot starts should stretch out the playing time for three candidates for long-term replacement, and lead the Indians to avoid some tough decisions they should make for 2007. Of course, Boone's supposed heir apparent, super-prospect Andy Marte, is not hitting at Buffalo (.256/.324/.363). Is it possible the Crisp trade, surrendering Crisp and bullpen handyman David Riske, will turn out to be the supposed "2005 Major League Executive of the Year's" serious mistake? We can only hope.
The Tigers have now gone 3-9 in the last 12 games, being outscored 70-42. Three things have gone wrong for the Tigers:
- Their schedule suddenly got a lot tougher,
- They started suffering injuries (Maroth, Monroe, I-Rod), and
- Their mixed-bag bullpen started giving up a lot of runs, capped by last night's meltdown.
Indians followers are amazed at the team's floudering at 29-31. "With all that talent," they ask, "how can they be under .500?" The answer, of course, is that the pitching staff isn't the same one they had last year, and in virtually every case, the replacement in 2006 is worse than the 2005 role-player. It hasn't helped that Cliff Lee has regressed to ordinary, but Paul Byrd and Jason Johnson simply haven't pitched well, and the smoke-and-mirrors 2005 bullpen is scattered and the replacement just hasn't gelled. From the perspective of a White Sox fan, the Indians' decision to use Aaron Boone at third and the Broussard/Blake hot starts should stretch out the playing time for three candidates for long-term replacement, and lead the Indians to avoid some tough decisions they should make for 2007. Of course, Boone's supposed heir apparent, super-prospect Andy Marte, is not hitting at Buffalo (.256/.324/.363). Is it possible the Crisp trade, surrendering Crisp and bullpen handyman David Riske, will turn out to be the supposed "2005 Major League Executive of the Year's" serious mistake? We can only hope.
Game 60: Caught between a rock and a hard place (37-23)
White Sox 5, Indians 4. Brian Anderson's running catch at the wall in the top of the 8th denied Travis Hafner of an RBI double, and Jermaine Dye's two-run single gave the White Sox a 5-4 win.
Brian Anderson if 19 for 123 with 6 extra base hits and 16 walks. Normally this would earn him a trip back to Charlotte, but given that he's a very good centerfielder on a team that doesn't have anybody else who is competent there, he has to play, which Guillen announced yesterday. Mackowiak gave it his best shot, but his being overmatched has cost the White Sox at least a couple of games already.
Anderson will almost certainly start hitting at some point. There really isn't anything magical about the majors outside of the hitters' minds (and their paychecks, obviously). Before the season, PECOTA had him at .269/.329/.468, rather than .154/.254/.268. Even if he does turn it around, he will post an ugly rookie season no matter what, as hitting .300 the rest of the way would still leave him somewhere in the low .200s.
Brian Anderson if 19 for 123 with 6 extra base hits and 16 walks. Normally this would earn him a trip back to Charlotte, but given that he's a very good centerfielder on a team that doesn't have anybody else who is competent there, he has to play, which Guillen announced yesterday. Mackowiak gave it his best shot, but his being overmatched has cost the White Sox at least a couple of games already.
Anderson will almost certainly start hitting at some point. There really isn't anything magical about the majors outside of the hitters' minds (and their paychecks, obviously). Before the season, PECOTA had him at .269/.329/.468, rather than .154/.254/.268. Even if he does turn it around, he will post an ugly rookie season no matter what, as hitting .300 the rest of the way would still leave him somewhere in the low .200s.
Friday, June 02, 2006
Game 53: Heartbreak's a soul shaker (33-20)
Between being sick this week and the pathetic efforts turned in by Garcia and Contreras over the last few days, it pains me to comment at all. So I won't.
Monday, May 29, 2006
Game 50: I don't wanna work, I just wanna bang on the Tribe all day (33-17)
White Sox 11, Cleveland 0. Take a moment on Memorial Day to remember the many fallen.
In my house, today, not much went right on a holiday. I'm laid up with a bad cold, woozy, and barely coherent (translation: even less so than normal). On the baseball diamond, just about everything that could go right, went right, at least for the White Sox. Javier Vazquez brought his best stuff, Cliff Lee didn't, Jim Thome slammed two home runs, and the Indians managed two singles in the entire game.
In my house, today, not much went right on a holiday. I'm laid up with a bad cold, woozy, and barely coherent (translation: even less so than normal). On the baseball diamond, just about everything that could go right, went right, at least for the White Sox. Javier Vazquez brought his best stuff, Cliff Lee didn't, Jim Thome slammed two home runs, and the Indians managed two singles in the entire game.
Sunday, May 28, 2006
Game 48: You take the biscuit
Toronto 3, White Sox 2, 11 innings. The White Sox stranded 13 baserunners in a game they should have won.
After the game, Ozzie made noises about maybe sending Anderson to the minors and bringing up another pitcher. I will say it once, I will say it a thousand times: no major league team needs 12 pitchers. EVER. Carrying 7 men in the bullpen just encourages overmanaging, excessive pitching changes, and ensures that half your bullpen is bad. Note to Ozzie: stop using pitchers for one batter, go back to the way you managed the team before, it worked fine. I don't care if you're facing Cleveland or whomever. Do not cripple the offensive bench so you can carry worthless 1-batter pitchers.
After the game, Ozzie made noises about maybe sending Anderson to the minors and bringing up another pitcher. I will say it once, I will say it a thousand times: no major league team needs 12 pitchers. EVER. Carrying 7 men in the bullpen just encourages overmanaging, excessive pitching changes, and ensures that half your bullpen is bad. Note to Ozzie: stop using pitchers for one batter, go back to the way you managed the team before, it worked fine. I don't care if you're facing Cleveland or whomever. Do not cripple the offensive bench so you can carry worthless 1-batter pitchers.
Saturday, May 27, 2006
Game 47: Take it Easy
Toronto 8, White Sox 2. Toronto beat up on Freddy Garcia in a rout. The only White Sox highlight would be the wasted two-homer game by Paul Konerko. The White Sox continue to struggle with lefthanded starting pitchers. Fortunately, Casey Janssen and Ty Taubenheim were born as northpaws.
The Tigers continue to win, beating the rosin out of the Cleveland Indians last night. But, please remember it's a long season. Scoreboard-watching in May is pretty much pointless, unless somebody is running away and hiding. The Tigers have done their best to do this, but they have managed to hide only from the Twins, Indians, and Royals; the White Sox hang in with their .660 record. Until late July or so rolls around, we simply don't really know what constitutes "help". At this point a year ago, the Indians were just about where they are now, and so were the White Sox (within a couple of games). The Tigers could suffer crippling misfortune and the Indians get hot at any point, in which case the Tiger rout last night would turn out to be welcome. Despite the wrist-slitting depression that accompanies any Sox loss, they are still 5-2 over the last 7 games and 15 games over .500, playing .660 baseball overall.
Notes:
The Tigers continue to win, beating the rosin out of the Cleveland Indians last night. But, please remember it's a long season. Scoreboard-watching in May is pretty much pointless, unless somebody is running away and hiding. The Tigers have done their best to do this, but they have managed to hide only from the Twins, Indians, and Royals; the White Sox hang in with their .660 record. Until late July or so rolls around, we simply don't really know what constitutes "help". At this point a year ago, the Indians were just about where they are now, and so were the White Sox (within a couple of games). The Tigers could suffer crippling misfortune and the Indians get hot at any point, in which case the Tiger rout last night would turn out to be welcome. Despite the wrist-slitting depression that accompanies any Sox loss, they are still 5-2 over the last 7 games and 15 games over .500, playing .660 baseball overall.
Notes:
- MLB announced their suspensions for the melee, with Barrett getting 10 games, Anderson 5, White Sox third base coach Joey Cora 2, and A. J. Pierzynski a $2,000 fine. Now, for Pierzynski, who makes $4M a year, this fine amounts to about as much as a night at the movies for the rest of us. Effectively, MLB has decided that the Cubs are 59% responsible for the brawl and the White Sox 41%, or, if you count the ejections, the White Sox lose about 7-person-games and the Cubs 12-person-games, or63-47. This is, of course, ridiculous and insulting, but it continues the long tradition of screwing the White Sox when other teams incite fights, most notably the five game suspension given to Jack McDowell for being assaulted by Mark Whiten, in contrast to the walk granted Nolan Ryan v. Robin Ventura in pretty much exactly the same circumstances.
- Speaking of Pierzynski, I know he's widely disliked for being mouthy, but the number of comments on the Internet suggesting that punching him, hitting him with pitched balls, crashing into him, or otherwise generally advocating violence is either in extremely poor taste or disgusting. Angels fans in particular: all the man did was run to first on a dropped third strike, and keep running on a tag by a fielder who neglected to put the ball in his glove. How that warrants Kelvim Escobar's intentional HBP is beyond me. Do NOT tell me it wasn't intentional; Pierzynski is the only batter Escobar has hit in 55 innings this year. The odds that out of 233 plate apperances, he would accidentally hit the one man he has a history against, and on the third pitch he threw him, are ridiculously long. How Escobar avoided an ejection or suspension is beyond me. To all who advocate plunking him or punching him: shame on you. If you don't like him, hell, heckle him. He simply is not Osama bin Laden.
- Much has been made of the weak schedules faced by the White Sox and Tigers, but this ignores the technical problem that this is in part because the White Sox and Tigers have played and beaten those teams. The White Sox opponents are actually 2 games over .500 in games not involving the White Sox so far. The team's weighted pace (that is, projecting their current win/loss rates against the balance of the schedule) is still 104 wins. They won't meet this (because they won't go 19-0 against the Tigers).
- The White Sox have apparently decided to move 3B prospect Josh Fields to the outfield. Fields has been the core of the offense of a team playing runaway baseball (albeit now on a 3-game losing streak) and sports a .323/.408/.568 line in his third pro season. Beware of him, I say: he strikes out a LOT. The 9 stolen bases say he's decently fast, and while they've talked about this OF thing, he's still playing 3B.
Friday, May 26, 2006
The trouble with the maples (and they're quite convinced they're right)
Jay Jaffe at Baseball Prospectus, in his recent chat, showed what happens to analysts who look at numbers but not the reasons for them. Two excerpts:
Joe (35th and Lowe): White Sox: Legitimate 100-105 win team, or have they just gotten pretty lucky over the past 14 months? Jay Jaffe: Once again, the WHite Sox are playing above their heads; they're +4.7 in the third-order Wins department according to our Adjusted standings. They've been more than a bit lucky over the course of that span, sure, but I do see them as about a 90-95 win team, particularly so long as Contreras and Thome remains healthy.
As I understand third-order wins, they are extrapolating from basic statistics and adjusting for quality of opponents. In other words, if all else is equal, what do the hits, walks, homers, etc., project as for wins. I suppose they have studies showing that their methodology is a sound prediction method, but as far as the White Sox are concerned, they've been basically, insistently wrong for over 200 games now. Further, having followed all of those games, I just can't see where the "luck events" occurred. Jaffe and crew should consider the possibility that their methodology is all approximate, that the real game of baseball is not played by APBA cards, and that when their prediction models can't account for performance, there is a 50% chance that the problem lies in the prediction model.
Nick from WH (SF): What do you make of Jhonny Peralta's slow start? Is he still the real deal? Jay Jaffe: I'm a huge Peralta fan; in fact I think I picked him as my AL MVP in the staff preseason picks. Which is probably the problem right there.
Where to start. Peralta's 20 homers last season should have come with an asterisk: (* Almost all hit off poor pitching). A look at Peralta's pitchers-faced profile showed that a disproportionate number of Misplaced H's home runs came off mop-up pitchers in massacres. Now, there's nothing wrong with this, but expecting that sort of performance to translate to the 3-hole in competitive games was naive, and showed that "one of the five best GMs in the game", whose superior team is now struggling with .500, didn't have deep insight into the true nature of his shortstop.
Joe (35th and Lowe): White Sox: Legitimate 100-105 win team, or have they just gotten pretty lucky over the past 14 months? Jay Jaffe: Once again, the WHite Sox are playing above their heads; they're +4.7 in the third-order Wins department according to our Adjusted standings. They've been more than a bit lucky over the course of that span, sure, but I do see them as about a 90-95 win team, particularly so long as Contreras and Thome remains healthy.
As I understand third-order wins, they are extrapolating from basic statistics and adjusting for quality of opponents. In other words, if all else is equal, what do the hits, walks, homers, etc., project as for wins. I suppose they have studies showing that their methodology is a sound prediction method, but as far as the White Sox are concerned, they've been basically, insistently wrong for over 200 games now. Further, having followed all of those games, I just can't see where the "luck events" occurred. Jaffe and crew should consider the possibility that their methodology is all approximate, that the real game of baseball is not played by APBA cards, and that when their prediction models can't account for performance, there is a 50% chance that the problem lies in the prediction model.
Nick from WH (SF): What do you make of Jhonny Peralta's slow start? Is he still the real deal? Jay Jaffe: I'm a huge Peralta fan; in fact I think I picked him as my AL MVP in the staff preseason picks. Which is probably the problem right there.
Where to start. Peralta's 20 homers last season should have come with an asterisk: (* Almost all hit off poor pitching). A look at Peralta's pitchers-faced profile showed that a disproportionate number of Misplaced H's home runs came off mop-up pitchers in massacres. Now, there's nothing wrong with this, but expecting that sort of performance to translate to the 3-hole in competitive games was naive, and showed that "one of the five best GMs in the game", whose superior team is now struggling with .500, didn't have deep insight into the true nature of his shortstop.
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