Saturday, January 05, 2008

I can make it longer if you like the style

A while back I ran the White Sox numbers through the wonderful timesaver that is Cyril Myrong et al's Lineup Analyzer to check some wild crowing about the Cabrera trade. I suppose it's time to feed the Nick Swisher acquisition through the cruncher, so I did. Using the assumptions from the Bill James handbook (available here), and not bothering to park-adjust Nick Swisher, we get 5.54 runs per game. Adjustng Swisher to USCF gets us to 5.6 or so. Exerting some slight pressure on the scales with the thumb (but not going hog-wild) we can get to 5.8. Of course the usual cautions apply -- this doesn't estimate real offense, it estimates a baseline in an ideal world, where benches don't have to get used. It's still a good place to start as you can compare that 5.6 or so to other teams idealized numbers...

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