Johnny Mostil's Razor

(34-26) Today is different

2008-06-07T10:27:00.001-05:00

What's wrong with Sox fans?

OK, who had the White Sox in first place by *more* than 3 1/2 games on June 7? Hmmm? Who had Jose Contreras snapping back to top form, at 6-3, 2.76? Who had the staff ERA at 3.37, the LOWEST in baseball after 61 games? Who had the offense fifth in the AL after 61 games?

What? Nobody? NOBODY? Everybody thought (a) the team would be much worse and (b) the Indians and (most people) the Tigers would be much better.

So what is 34-26? A 92-win pace.

Consider these numbers:

.252/.329/.415 100 and 3.37/129

Now consider these numbers:

.262/.322/.425 95 and 3.61/124

Guess what. This team is, so far, fundamentally just about as good as the 2005 Chicago White Sox.

You wouldn't think so from the bitching. The team can't score, although they are fifth in the league. Their pitching is suspect, although it's been dominant.

Oh, shut up! The team can't score against top pitchers. Duh, neither does anyone else. They play mediocre baseball on long grinding road trips against good teams. Duh, so does everyone else.

What they have been doing is win two-thirds of their games on grass. They are 31-16 on grass, 17-9 at home and 14-7 on the road. They have 7 games left on turf (in Twinkie-Land) and 95 left on grass.

It's a Volcano

2008-03-15T10:37:00.002-05:00

Joe Crede's continued stuggles, Jerry Owens' injuries, and Brian Anderson's statement-spring are combining to make matters really, really difficult for the White Sox.

Crede needs to be traded by the roster cut-down, as the White Sox can't carry both him and Josh Fields. Fields is, at this point, by far the more valuable of the two, but the availability of options may compel them to take Crede North when the time comes and consign Fields to Charlotte until Crede plays his way into somebody else's plans.

The White Sox clearly drew up the outfield in the offseason as Swisher-Owens-Dye+Quentin, but the play of Anderson and Owens' injuries may require a realignment. Anderson has played well enough to stick, but the Groupthink need to carry too many pitchers means there aren't enough bench spots left for two backup outfielders.

The season may hinge on how they resolve this game of musical chairs.

Time keeps on slippin' into the future...

2008-01-27T13:44:00.000-06:00

Right now, here's what we have:

2008 Offense Model Projection

Idiot, slow down, slow down

2008-01-12T13:14:00.000-06:00

Dugout central doesn't like Swisher.

That clinches it. I do.

Love the one you're with

2008-01-12T12:59:00.000-06:00

A couple of days ago, Mike Downey made the argument for Harold Baines for Cooperstown. Fire Joe Morgan ripped the column to shreds.

I was a huge Baines fan, but seriously, any chance Baines had to be a Hall of Fame player ended when his knee injury forced him out of right field for good in 1987. His only chance rested with the 3000 hit technicality, and he didn't get that.

I don't have any problem with DHs as hall of fame players. And Baines was a good player. He wasn't a great player, though. He was one of the legion of second-banana ballplayers who can definitely contribute to a ballclub but not a true star. With the White Sox he was always the second or third best player on the team, never the first, that was always Fisk. His numbers were solid, but not immortal. Torturing them to make a piecemeal case doesn't make him a Fame-ous player.

I can make it longer if you like the style

2008-01-05T10:27:00.000-06:00

A while back I ran the White Sox numbers through the wonderful timesaver that is Cyril Myrong et al's Lineup Analyzer to check some wild crowing about the Cabrera trade. I suppose it's time to feed the Nick Swisher acquisition through the cruncher, so I did. Using the assumptions from the Bill James handbook (available here), and not bothering to park-adjust Nick Swisher, we get 5.54 runs per game. Adjustng Swisher to USCF gets us to 5.6 or so. Exerting some slight pressure on the scales with the thumb (but not going hog-wild) we can get to 5.8. Of course the usual cautions apply -- this doesn't estimate real offense, it estimates a baseline in an ideal world, where benches don't have to get used. It's still a good place to start as you can compare that 5.6 or so to other teams idealized numbers...

I'm trapped in this body and can't get out

2008-01-05T10:19:00.000-06:00

Many analyses of the White Sox off-season focus on how the optimum strategy for the White Sox is not to collect veterans at the expense of the farm system. This may be true.

But let's realize that the alternative strategy of dump-and-rebuild isn't feasible due to special circumstances. It may never be. Simply put, the White Sox are not allowed to surrender a season in Chicago for rebuilding, as the financial impact would be devastating. The Mariotti types have spent the last thirty years carefully building the canard that Jerry Reinsdorf is a Scrooge who steals fans' money with a second-rate product, and they would go on the warpath about cheap ownership. Rebuilding would throw raw meat to the dog pack. The attendance would drop to 12th or 13th in the league because the average (that is, non-hard-core) paying Chicago customer seems pre-disposed to believe baloney.

Now, Oakland can get away with this because they are moving into a new park in a few years and the counter-buzz from the Fremont move will restore the financial situation, and because the Giants are hardly an alternative fan draw any more. Houston could get away with it because their fans are willing to pay for anything. But the White Sox are trapped. They have to appear to be contending (or desperately trying) in April or May or the balance sheet turns bright red. Trading the expensive players to recoup doesn't work because with the White Sox fan base it takes YEARS of competitive baseball to recover the finances from a "management betrayal".

I think they have to sink naturally, fighting to survive, to keep up appearances.

One of the few bad consequences of the influx of Ivy Leaguers into the baseball analysis world is the loss of the basic truth that MLB is a commercialized amusement, and rebuilding is, well, not amusing. Florida is among the most successful franchises of the last 11 years by the championship metric, but nobody really wants to be them... MLB isn't a classroom game theory exercise. You have to get people to pay to watch teams not called the Red Sox and Yankees and Cubs and Dodgers. Each franchise has its own row to hoe.

And let's talk about the last two times the White Sox went into dump-and-rebuild mode, 1988 and 1997. The first time they had a new stadium -- and four straight jackpot draft choices -- to recover. The second time (the White Flag) they didn't financially recover for almost a decade for a trade that worked out. Dump-and-collect is not viable for the White Sox until the world stops whitewashing every sleazy, greedy trick the Cubs financial wizards do while pretending that the White Sox are run by diabolical misers.

Hello Goodbye

2008-01-03T21:08:00.000-06:00

I think Nick Swisher is a DAMNED good ballplayer, 27 years old, smart, disciplined, durable, and adaptable. In the Cell he'll probably hit like a switch-hitting Jermaine Dye with a lot more walks. He can play centerfield but he's only average there -- he simply doesn't make mistakes, but he won't run down screamers in the gaps, either. He can play first base and any corner position well. Swisher is exactly the right kind of ballplayer to go get as far as I am concerned, especially if his approach rubs off on Josh Fields. I am well-aware of the Mackowiak experience, but Swisher is considerably better than Mack, about as good a CF as Darin Erstad (now) and he hits about twice as well. I like him a hell of a lot better than a middle-aged Coco Crisp, or a middle-aged Aaron Rowand, or a middle-aged Torii Hunter, at least over the next five freaking years.

What made him expensive in terms of trade value is he's cost controlled -- he's completely signed until 2012. The White Sox will owe him about $35 million over those five years, which is about half market value. This isn't a rental player, this is an investment-grade talent... or, just maybe, there's something coming here... like flipping him to Boston (DAMN he's their kind of player!) for multiple position player prospects? What if he gets flipped for Jed Lowrie and Ellsbury? The main reason I don't see this as an option is Oakland wouldn't have needed the White Sox and they'd love those guys...

On to the out-box:

Sad to say, I think Sweeney's waiver-wire bait, so I think the trade comes down to what happens to Gio Gonzalez and de los Santos. As much hope as I have (had) for Ryan Sweeney, I'm afraid he's going to bust. He didn't show significant power in Charlotte in 800+ at bats, which just doesn't bode well. If he were a second baseman, I'd be more upset. As a corner outfielder he can't play major league baseball at all.

Now, I don't like parting with Gio at all. The only two cautions I see with him are he's short for a pitcher and you can't read pitchers based on how they did in Birmingham, Alabama, because every pitcher looks good in that ballpark. The five or so inches he's missing in height show up as stress on the ulnar collateral ligament, and his 93mph is like Zumaya's 99. In wonkese, his phenotype is a cause for concern. That said, he gets people out, and he's got enough innings to assume his arm won't fall apart tomorrow.

De los Santos has faced a total of 483 hitters in professional baseball, which means he's thrown something like 1500 pitches in his career, and at 21 years of age he's just getting started. He's struck out almost 1/3 of the hitters who've faced him, which is phenomenal, but I don't personally know what kind of stuff he's got, and nobody knows if his UCL can make it to the majors. He's a wild card.

I think how you feel about this comes down to how you feel about minor league "prospects" and whether you "overvalue" pitching. If you're John Sickels or Baseball Prospectus, and you make a living telling people you can predict minor league player futures, you hate this trade. If you think pitching is more important that hitting, (a) you're wrong (grin), and (b) you'll hate this trade.

So... Swisher's probability of being a major league regular and above average player for the next 5 years is probably as close to a lock as exists in MLB. Sweeney's probability is near 0. If Gonzalez makes the jump as a frontline starter AND de los Santos makes the jump as a frontline starter or closer, this trade will look awful. If they both make it as "just" back-end starters or middle relievers, this trade will look awesome.

How's that for equivocating?

I wonder if this means a back-of-the-rotation veteran is about to get signed or acquired for Crede?

Rocking Horse People Eat Marshmallow Pies

2007-12-27T21:23:00.000-06:00

The Astros signed Darin Erstad to a $1M contract as a lefthanded bat off the bench.

The Transaction Oracle is too kind.

Oh, Havana, I've been searching for you everywhere

2007-12-23T12:21:00.000-06:00

The White Sox signed Cuban exile Alexei Ramirez, who adds entertainment value to spring training by not having a pre-defined defensive position. A star in Cuban professional baseball, Ramirez supposedly can play second, short, and the outfield. Nobody really knows whether he can hit in the majors; Baseball Prospectus thinks the top Cuban league is akin to short-season A ball (that is, the Sally League). Given that Ramirez is 26 and has only faced serious competition in international tournaments, it's tough to expect anything from him except an option to AA.

We Never Really Knew Each Other Anyway

2007-12-12T20:02:00.000-06:00

Call it sour grapes if you want, but I'm kind of relieved the White Sox failed to land Torii Hunter, Aaron Rowand, Miguel Cabrera, and to a lesser extent, Kosuke Fukudome.

Hunter and Rowand don't project to be worth the money they're being paid. Rowand in particular raised polite oh-dear-god remarks from analysts. Considering that his projected ZIPs numbers aren't really any better than Brian Anderson's projected statistics from PECOTA last year (before the Grinderstad spring training incident and the injury), paying him a guaranteed $60M would have been nuts. I don't know which of Goldilocks, or Jerry Owens, or Ryan Sweeney will outhit Rowand over the next five years, but I bet one of them will, and they all might. I'm comfortable with giving them a chance.

Paying Hunter 50% more than that would have been even more nuts. Torii Hunter is a good center fielder, but dear God that is a lot of Arte Moreno's dinero for a team that already has one overpaid centerfielder with years left on his contract...

And God knows the price for Cabrera was too much to pay, as the Tigers will find out when AARP calls for their lineup in a couple of years.

Fukudome is a tougher call, but we don't actually know if he was even capable of playing a major league center field; a lot of the White Sox buzz tacitly assumed he could step in and play a solid center, and maybe his selection of the Cubs was partly his way of saying, "No, I can't."

So put another record on...

2007-12-07T19:26:00.000-06:00

A lot of people love the Tiger deal.

One Tiger fan ran the numbers using Cyril Morong et al's lineup analyzer, which is a fun (if tedious) toy. They got a "tasty" 5.831 runs per game number.

5.831 runs per game is good, almost 950 runs. It's wrong, of course, because of the unstated fallacy that Cabrera (or anyone's) National League numbers translate to the AL. Put in the NL-to-AL translations for Miguel Cabrera and Jacque Jones (per Nate Silver), and you get a sharp drop from 5.831 to a still-good 5.658:

I ran the same numbers using the same source projections (Bill James) for current White Sox hitters (Note: These load real slow!) and got 5.300 runs per game. (Brian Anderson gives about the same result.) I'd be thrilled with this at this point, that's about 850 runs. (It doesn't matter a lot who plays center field. So let's say you put in Fukudome at .375/.500. The mill grinds away and says 5.554 runs per game, an increase of about 40 runs a season. You put BA or RS in center and you get about the same as with Owens.)

The problem is the estimator is, of course, sensitive to your guesses for OBA and SLG. I tweak the numbers a little without making them seem at all "fake" and I get the offense up to 5.580 runs per game:

As for the Tigers, put in some accelerated age-related decline for their geezers and you can get to 5.528.

Yeah, that's right, I said geezers. Their average lineup age is going to be about 32 years old. Gary Sheffield is going to be 39. Granderson and Cabrera are their youth, at least until they make a trade.

So if I put my thumb on the scale ONLY SLIGHTLY I get comparable offenses. (The ballparks aren't really comparable, of course, but never mind that).

He captured it and brought it home

2007-12-03T19:46:00.000-06:00

Acquired, for minor league DH-to-be Chris Carter, Snakes' former top prospect Carlos Quentin...

I know Black Betsy is really high on Carter, and maybe with good reason, but right-handed players who play first base in A ball should have huge warning signs on them (since, if they are any kind of athlete, they'll be at third or in the outfield).

So I looked at Carter's minor league fielding statistics, and what did I see? A .977 fielding percentage at first base, which is otherwise known as "Dr. Stoneglove". (Frank Thomas' minor league fielding percentage was about
.987...) While Mike Ward would have loved ripping the poor guy a new one twice a week, I don't want to think about it.

Carter has already been used as a DH in the Sally League, because he can't play defense. So Kenny got a LF from the Snakes -- made extraneous by the Byrnes signing -- for a minor league DH.

As for Quentin, he's a stud prospect who lost his luster in a couple of injury-plagued seasons. Runs adequately (not good enough to play center), righthanded power hitter, threw OK before his injuries... kind of like BA with a penchant for being hit by pitches, more power, more raw talent, and somewhat less fielding ability. Can't play center -- he's a corner outfielder.

This is a very good deal for the White Sox.

You can shine like silver all you want

2007-11-25T14:58:00.001-06:00

So Scott Linebrink's signing is sending shock waves through the industry. Right. Give me a break. Giving him 4/$19M is pretty stupid, but where's the outrage over the enormous pile of cash handed out to Coco Cordero at about the same time? Or the Angels' overcall bid for Torii Hunter after another overcall bid for Gary Matthews Jr last year? Where's the outrage of Boras and A-Rod cheating on the performance-clause ban, which is far more dangerous and earth-shattering?

Fish, he got a hook in his throat

2007-11-22T14:43:00.000-06:00

Scott Linebrink reportedly negotiating with the White Sox for four years and nineteen million dollars...

Linebrink is not a leak-type reliever, he's a burst-type reliever. What I mean by that is his usual game is a scoreless inning, but once in a while, oh my God. In 71 appearances last year, he posted scoreless innings or more in 52 of them, and one or fewer runs in 62 of them. A four spot, three threes, and five twos inflated his ERA. He tends to do this from time to time. He does finish what he starts and he doesn't bleed runs. That's what you get with a setup man.

Chicago fans aren't really tolerant of the burst-type reliever, so this should end well. Yeah.

Let's toast the hero with blood in his eyes

2007-11-22T14:37:00.000-06:00

So Torii hunter is an Angel, for five years and ninety million dollars.

Wow. Of course, congratulations to Hunter, who now will be able to serve his dogs their food on antique china if he feels like it.

And congratulations to Kenny Williams, who was saved from himself. A close bidding war might have created a situation where the White Sox, who don't need an aging centerfielder to add to their aging first baseman and DH, could have gone to seventy million for Hunter. By blowing away the field (what used to be called "pulling a Tom Hicks") the Angels managed to, in one swoop, make their fifty million dollar centerfielder from last off-season (with a no-trade clause) redundant, and possibly raise the going rate for centerfielders by four million a year for no good reason.

To know how it feels when the universe reels...

2007-11-21T11:48:00.000-06:00

Item: The White Sox traded John Garland to the Angels for Orlando Cabrera and, apparently, $1.5 million. Both Garland and Cabrera will be eligible for free agency after 2008. Garland is owed $12 million next year, and Cabrera, $9 million.

After careful consiration, I come down in favor.

First, the White Sox aren't really going to contend in 2008, or 2009 for that matter, unless Miracles Occur. So one question really is, are you more comfortable hoping for miracles with Gio, Egbert, Broadway, and Danks, or with Sweeney, Anderson, Owens, and Richar? I know what I think. The ONLY real assets the White Sox have in the minors worth talking about (at least above A ball, that is) are a handful of starting pitchers. They have few position player prospects ready that I trust. They simply have to trade pitching for position players because otherwise they'll be PLAYING pitchers at positions.

Second, there is the matter of public perception. The White Sox can get away with hoping for Gio et al because, at least two to three times a week, they will still put a veteran major league pitcher on the mound, and more if Contreras can bounce back. But the everyday lineup is there EVERY DAY, and putting Andy Gonzalez and Richar and Owens and Cintron on the field is just brutal. Those guys shouldn't be in the majors, let alone occupying a significant chunk of your roster. In these days of four-man benches, these guys will play a lot. So you, the fan, can't even pick and choose which games to watch because they are *all* bad. The White Sox can't afford to risk that financially.

Third, there is the "message" with the free agent CFs the White Sox are allegedly courting. (I'll believe it when I see a signing.) "We're going to put a veteran defense behind young pitching" is a selling point. "We're going with D-list position player prospects but keeping JG for an extra year" isn't. Everybody in baseball knows Garland is gone after 2008. Whether OC won't be re-signed is open to doubt.

Finally, Cabrera is 33 but otherwise he is the kind of player I think you should be glad to see Kenny picking up. He's a defensive plus. He's smart. He stays healthy. Yeah, he's 33, but he's not Omar Vizquel, and he's tied down for one and only one year, and the problem with old players isn't the next year, it's the next four. Even if he turns into a giant crater, the pain will be over in 10 months anyway.

Garland will be missed, sure. But the relief of not being blinded by the uglier alternatives is probably worth it.

By the way, John... thanks for 2005.

It's been such a long time

2007-10-19T19:24:00.002-05:00

The last time I posted, the White Sox were watching the Tigers win their division, waiting for next year...

A year later, the White Sox have imploded, with every one of Baseball Prospectus' worst predictions having come true.

The spiral was hard to take -- so hard that yours truly couldn't bring himself to post a word about it here.

So, Johnny's spent his time in the sanitarium, cleaning up the razor wounds, and it's time to pick up the thread as the White Sox try to arrest their decline.

Anxiously waiting the first transaction,

I am,

Your obedient servant,

Johnny Mostil's Razor

2007-10-19T19:24:00.001-05:00

Somebody else's baby

2006-10-15T10:30:00.000-05:00

The Detroit Tigers are in the World Series. Every White Sox fan knows it could've easily been the White Sox.

Ultimately, the 2006 White Sox died from neglect. Not from the bullpen, not from the starting pitching, not from the unexpected bad luck of sharing a division with a couple of teams on Missions from God.

They died because, in his haste to cement a second championship team, Kenny Williams forgot to have any backup plans. When Brian Anderson struggled at the plate, there was no major league caliber option to back him up. When Scott Podsednik struggled at the plate and in the field, there was no option to replace him except Pablo Ozuna.

They died because of gratitude. When the bullpen struggled, blood flowed, and Riske and McDougal were brought in to (mostly) stem the bleeding -- but not until Cliff Politte got 30 innings to blow multiple ballgames before earning his release. One has to think that Podsednik not being replaced had more to do with his homer off Brad Lidge last October than any realistic assessment of his contributions. His defensive drop-off made him possibly the worst regular position player in the league.

They died because of stubbornness. Boone Logan got far more opportunities to show he wasn't ready that any rationality justified. Anderson, despite his manifest problems hitting lefty pitching, was platooned, deepening his slump. The use of Cotts and Logan as LOOGys despite poor performance in that specific role was stubbornly repeated.

Now comes the offseason, the great time to blog because, well, you can't be proven wrong for six months.

Good luck to the Tigers. But we all can't help but think it shoulda been our time again. In baseball, unless you're the Yankees, the opportunity not seized doesn't usually come again for a long time.

Capitalize on this good forture

2006-06-21T18:31:00.000-05:00

When Joe Crede broke his finger last year, he was a lifetime .251/.300/.428 hitter. Given the high expectations, that would officially qualify as a major disappointment.

Since he came off the DL on September 10, 2005, Joe Crede has now played in 85 games. In that span he's hit .320/.354/.560.

Here's one way of looking at it: double his last 81 games and you get:

.312
34 homers
118 RBI
28 walks (nobody is perfect)

Suffer not your neighbor's affliction

2006-06-10T09:19:00.000-05:00

As midnight approached on May 27, the Detroit Tigers were coming off a win off the Indians and were an incredible 35-14. Virtually everything was going right for the team, easily leading the league in ERA and scoring runs in bunches. One more game against the Indians, who they'd been dominating, followed by stretch against the Yankees, Boston, the White Sox, and Toronto, gave the Tigers an opportunity to quiet the last naysayers.

The Tigers have now gone 3-9 in the last 12 games, being outscored 70-42. Three things have gone wrong for the Tigers:

Their schedule suddenly got a lot tougher,
They started suffering injuries (Maroth, Monroe, I-Rod), and
Their mixed-bag bullpen started giving up a lot of runs, capped by last night's meltdown.

They have managed to cling to first place mostly because the White Sox have not played Whack-A-Mole with them quite enough yet. The wheels aren't off yet, but the Detroit lug nuts look to be loose or missing for 2006. This is not to say the Tigers aren't long-term contenders; the wealth of young pitching plus more coming (and Zumaya eventually moving into a key role) augurs well for their future -- if Leyland doesn't Dusty-Baker the young pitchers first, that is. On the other hand, Polanco, Ordonez, I-Rod, and Guillen aren't spring chickens, and the latter three have terrifying injury histories (which are the reasons they're all in Motown in the first place), so keep in mind the possibility that this team could be a mirage.

Indians followers are amazed at the team's floudering at 29-31. "With all that talent," they ask, "how can they be under .500?" The answer, of course, is that the pitching staff isn't the same one they had last year, and in virtually every case, the replacement in 2006 is worse than the 2005 role-player. It hasn't helped that Cliff Lee has regressed to ordinary, but Paul Byrd and Jason Johnson simply haven't pitched well, and the smoke-and-mirrors 2005 bullpen is scattered and the replacement just hasn't gelled. From the perspective of a White Sox fan, the Indians' decision to use Aaron Boone at third and the Broussard/Blake hot starts should stretch out the playing time for three candidates for long-term replacement, and lead the Indians to avoid some tough decisions they should make for 2007. Of course, Boone's supposed heir apparent, super-prospect Andy Marte, is not hitting at Buffalo (.256/.324/.363). Is it possible the Crisp trade, surrendering Crisp and bullpen handyman David Riske, will turn out to be the supposed "2005 Major League Executive of the Year's" serious mistake? We can only hope.

Game 60: Caught between a rock and a hard place (37-23)

2006-06-10T07:25:00.000-05:00

White Sox 5, Indians 4. Brian Anderson's running catch at the wall in the top of the 8th denied Travis Hafner of an RBI double, and Jermaine Dye's two-run single gave the White Sox a 5-4 win.

Brian Anderson if 19 for 123 with 6 extra base hits and 16 walks. Normally this would earn him a trip back to Charlotte, but given that he's a very good centerfielder on a team that doesn't have anybody else who is competent there, he has to play, which Guillen announced yesterday. Mackowiak gave it his best shot, but his being overmatched has cost the White Sox at least a couple of games already.

Anderson will almost certainly start hitting at some point. There really isn't anything magical about the majors outside of the hitters' minds (and their paychecks, obviously). Before the season, PECOTA had him at .269/.329/.468, rather than .154/.254/.268. Even if he does turn it around, he will post an ugly rookie season no matter what, as hitting .300 the rest of the way would still leave him somewhere in the low .200s.

Game 53: Heartbreak's a soul shaker (33-20)

2006-06-02T16:13:00.000-05:00

Between being sick this week and the pathetic efforts turned in by Garcia and Contreras over the last few days, it pains me to comment at all. So I won't.

Game 50: I don't wanna work, I just wanna bang on the Tribe all day (33-17)

2006-05-29T14:57:00.000-05:00

White Sox 11, Cleveland 0. Take a moment on Memorial Day to remember the many fallen.

In my house, today, not much went right on a holiday. I'm laid up with a bad cold, woozy, and barely coherent (translation: even less so than normal). On the baseball diamond, just about everything that could go right, went right, at least for the White Sox. Javier Vazquez brought his best stuff, Cliff Lee didn't, Jim Thome slammed two home runs, and the Indians managed two singles in the entire game.

Game 48: You take the biscuit

2006-05-28T08:43:00.000-05:00

Toronto 3, White Sox 2, 11 innings. The White Sox stranded 13 baserunners in a game they should have won.

After the game, Ozzie made noises about maybe sending Anderson to the minors and bringing up another pitcher. I will say it once, I will say it a thousand times: no major league team needs 12 pitchers. EVER. Carrying 7 men in the bullpen just encourages overmanaging, excessive pitching changes, and ensures that half your bullpen is bad. Note to Ozzie: stop using pitchers for one batter, go back to the way you managed the team before, it worked fine. I don't care if you're facing Cleveland or whomever. Do not cripple the offensive bench so you can carry worthless 1-batter pitchers.

Game 47: Take it Easy

2006-05-27T09:47:00.000-05:00

Toronto 8, White Sox 2. Toronto beat up on Freddy Garcia in a rout. The only White Sox highlight would be the wasted two-homer game by Paul Konerko. The White Sox continue to struggle with lefthanded starting pitchers. Fortunately, Casey Janssen and Ty Taubenheim were born as northpaws.

The Tigers continue to win, beating the rosin out of the Cleveland Indians last night. But, please remember it's a long season. Scoreboard-watching in May is pretty much pointless, unless somebody is running away and hiding. The Tigers have done their best to do this, but they have managed to hide only from the Twins, Indians, and Royals; the White Sox hang in with their .660 record. Until late July or so rolls around, we simply don't really know what constitutes "help". At this point a year ago, the Indians were just about where they are now, and so were the White Sox (within a couple of games). The Tigers could suffer crippling misfortune and the Indians get hot at any point, in which case the Tiger rout last night would turn out to be welcome. Despite the wrist-slitting depression that accompanies any Sox loss, they are still 5-2 over the last 7 games and 15 games over .500, playing .660 baseball overall.

Notes:

MLB announced their suspensions for the melee, with Barrett getting 10 games, Anderson 5, White Sox third base coach Joey Cora 2, and A. J. Pierzynski a $2,000 fine. Now, for Pierzynski, who makes $4M a year, this fine amounts to about as much as a night at the movies for the rest of us. Effectively, MLB has decided that the Cubs are 59% responsible for the brawl and the White Sox 41%, or, if you count the ejections, the White Sox lose about 7-person-games and the Cubs 12-person-games, or63-47. This is, of course, ridiculous and insulting, but it continues the long tradition of screwing the White Sox when other teams incite fights, most notably the five game suspension given to Jack McDowell for being assaulted by Mark Whiten, in contrast to the walk granted Nolan Ryan v. Robin Ventura in pretty much exactly the same circumstances.

Speaking of Pierzynski, I know he's widely disliked for being mouthy, but the number of comments on the Internet suggesting that punching him, hitting him with pitched balls, crashing into him, or otherwise generally advocating violence is either in extremely poor taste or disgusting. Angels fans in particular: all the man did was run to first on a dropped third strike, and keep running on a tag by a fielder who neglected to put the ball in his glove. How that warrants Kelvim Escobar's intentional HBP is beyond me. Do NOT tell me it wasn't intentional; Pierzynski is the only batter Escobar has hit in 55 innings this year. The odds that out of 233 plate apperances, he would accidentally hit the one man he has a history against, and on the third pitch he threw him, are ridiculously long. How Escobar avoided an ejection or suspension is beyond me. To all who advocate plunking him or punching him: shame on you. If you don't like him, hell, heckle him. He simply is not Osama bin Laden.

Much has been made of the weak schedules faced by the White Sox and Tigers, but this ignores the technical problem that this is in part because the White Sox and Tigers have played and beaten those teams. The White Sox opponents are actually 2 games over .500 in games not involving the White Sox so far. The team's weighted pace (that is, projecting their current win/loss rates against the balance of the schedule) is still 104 wins. They won't meet this (because they won't go 19-0 against the Tigers).

The White Sox have apparently decided to move 3B prospect Josh Fields to the outfield. Fields has been the core of the offense of a team playing runaway baseball (albeit now on a 3-game losing streak) and sports a .323/.408/.568 line in his third pro season. Beware of him, I say: he strikes out a LOT. The 9 stolen bases say he's decently fast, and while they've talked about this OF thing, he's still playing 3B.

The trouble with the maples (and they're quite convinced they're right)

2006-05-26T07:32:00.000-05:00

Jay Jaffe at Baseball Prospectus, in his recent chat, showed what happens to analysts who look at numbers but not the reasons for them. Two excerpts:

Joe (35th and Lowe): White Sox: Legitimate 100-105 win team, or have they just gotten pretty lucky over the past 14 months? Jay Jaffe: Once again, the WHite Sox are playing above their heads; they're +4.7 in the third-order Wins department according to our Adjusted standings. They've been more than a bit lucky over the course of that span, sure, but I do see them as about a 90-95 win team, particularly so long as Contreras and Thome remains healthy.

As I understand third-order wins, they are extrapolating from basic statistics and adjusting for quality of opponents. In other words, if all else is equal, what do the hits, walks, homers, etc., project as for wins. I suppose they have studies showing that their methodology is a sound prediction method, but as far as the White Sox are concerned, they've been basically, insistently wrong for over 200 games now. Further, having followed all of those games, I just can't see where the "luck events" occurred. Jaffe and crew should consider the possibility that their methodology is all approximate, that the real game of baseball is not played by APBA cards, and that when their prediction models can't account for performance, there is a 50% chance that the problem lies in the prediction model.

Nick from WH (SF): What do you make of Jhonny Peralta's slow start? Is he still the real deal? Jay Jaffe: I'm a huge Peralta fan; in fact I think I picked him as my AL MVP in the staff preseason picks. Which is probably the problem right there.

Where to start. Peralta's 20 homers last season should have come with an asterisk: (* Almost all hit off poor pitching). A look at Peralta's pitchers-faced profile showed that a disproportionate number of Misplaced H's home runs came off mop-up pitchers in massacres. Now, there's nothing wrong with this, but expecting that sort of performance to translate to the 3-hole in competitive games was naive, and showed that "one of the five best GMs in the game", whose superior team is now struggling with .500, didn't have deep insight into the true nature of his shortstop.

Game 46: Washing machine (31-15)

2006-05-24T21:41:00.000-05:00

Chicago 3, Oakland 2. The White Sox completed their first three-game home sweep of the A's in almost twenty years when Bobby Jenks struck out three, getting the last four in a row, to close out a solid Mark Buerhle outing backed by great defensive plays by Joe Crede and Jermaine Dye. (Dye later dropped a fly ball to take the luster off his game.)

The big story for the series was supposed to be Frank Thomas' return to the scene of virtually all of his career. Thomas was really, really good, the best he's been all year, with 4 hits in 9 at bats, including a couple of homers, four walks, and a HBP. It didn't matter. He was upstaged by a squeeze bunt, a home-run derby, and Buehrle&Jenks.

Notes:

Bobby Jenks is one nasty so-and-so. Jason Kendall is very difficult to strike out, but he nailed him in the 8th with the tying and go-ahead runners in scoring position. That gives him 17 strikeouts in May in less than 11 innings. He's been walking a batter almost every game, but not today.

The White Sox now have had six consecutive sellouts. That has never happened before.

After an off-day tomorrow comes a visit back on the plastic, to the so-called "Rogers Centre" in Toronto. The Tigers draw the Indians, who desperately need to kill them. Should be fun.

Oh, and when is Michael Barrett getting suspended?

What a drag it is...

2006-05-24T20:57:00.000-05:00

ESPN has spent the entire night blathering about "what's wrong with Randy Johnson". It's his mechanics. It's his mental approach. It's a slump.

The man turns 43 on September 10th. He's old, that's all. Old.

Get a little action in

2006-05-21T09:23:00.000-05:00

Observations:

A. J. Pierzynski did nothing wrong on the second inning collision. Michael Barrett was blocking the plate, set up for a tag, and the conventional play in professional baseball is a collision in that situation.
The Cub pitcher's assertion that Pierzynski should have known that the ball was ten feet from Barrett assumes that Pierzynski has eyes in the back of his head. If Pierzynski had shied from the collision, Barrett would not have granted some kind of courtesy on the tag.
Pierzynski did nothing wrong after the collision. The umpire had not yet signalled safe (even thought Pierzynski had already touched the plate twice). The exagerrated thump was just an exclamation mark, one that Cub fans should be familiar with after ten years of Sammy's "hop".
Pierzynski did nothing wrong in attempting to go after his helmet. Some Cubpologists asserted on the internet that the helmet was not in the direction he said it was, but in fact, the replay clearly shows it did.
Pierzynski's action when struck in the face was to back away. There is no evidence he did anything confrontational from that point forward.
Pierzynski did show considerable emotion on his way to the clubhouse after his ejection.
Apparently Pierzynski was ejected immediately and Barrett only after long discussion.

This raises four serious questions about major league baseball:

Why did the home plate umpire wait for the thump before signalling safe when Pierzynski had clearly touched the plate more than once before?
Why did the umpires eject Pierzynski at all? He did nothing wrong. He has been remarkably sportsmanlike about the starkly wrongful ejection by umpires whose handling of the situation looked incompetent.
Why did the umpires try to avoid ejecting another player who had punched a player in the mouth in full view of the home plate umpire?
Will MLB have the guts to admit (1-7) and that the umpires' ejection of Pierzynski was a mistake?

It also raises two serious questions about ESPN and the Chicago media:

Why were Pierzynski's actions discussed at all? He didn't do anything wrong?
Why, after defending Pierzynski at length, did ESPN yapper Jeff Brantley say, if he were pitching tomorrow, he would hit Pierzynski? WTF?

Crush 'em like so many paper beer cups

2006-05-20T07:38:00.000-05:00

While the supremacy of the free world is being decided at 35th and the Dan Ryan, FOX is broadcasting to most of the nation a game between two obscure teams called, I think, the "Mitts" and the "Yank-mes". Now, from what I hear, the "Yank-mes" have an outfield populated by rookies, and an infield populated by, shall we say, players with reputations for sullenness.

I will probably have to surrender my White Sox fan party card for this, but I have to confess, I just don't hate the Chicago Cubs. I don't like them, either; they exist in that vast nebula of baseball teams about which I have no opinion. That's the way it is. Right now, they are The Team Playing The White Sox, though, which always moves them to Honorary #30 on my top-to-bottom list.

And:

Based on a seven-game road trip where he hit .238/.217/.429, some people are already writing The New Joe Crede's obituary. I say, check the splits. Joe doesn't hit well in Minny, Tampa, or on plastic in general. I won't speculate on why this is true -- there may not be a bigger BS dump in baseball than theories on offense on Astroturf (or its relatives) other than to say that the turf probably favors fast slap hitters, which is the opposite of what Joe Crede is.

The poster children for methodological blindness are still at it.

Peter Gammons called the Tiger pitching the best in baseball yesterday in his ESPN blog (pay site). Now, this is an defensible point; but it seems when Peter Gammons says something, it's jumping the shark. Cincinnati slaughtered the Tiger pitching staff. Coincidence?

Outgoing Sewanee economics professor J. C. Bradbury has web-published a study suggesting that pitching dilution, not steroids, is responsible for the home run epidemic of the last 20 years. He extrapolates a Stephen Jay Gould argument that decreased variance in statistics implies increase in overall quality when you are operating at the extreme end of the normal curve. Since the hit batter rate tracks the home run rate reasonably, it's logical to presume that pitching quality dilution is the primary motivator. All this sounds correct, but as the comments to Bradbury's blog say, there is a problem here. Technically, I think the best way to put it is, nobody knows if the performance distribution curve is wide sense stationary or egodic. Practically, this means that the observation that the strike zone is smaller than it was 20 years ago and the prevalence today of Chet-Lemon-style plate crowders could be affecting both home run rates and HBP rates. Further, one could argue that smaller parks not only increase the home run rate, they encourage teams to flirt with wild power pitchers. Personally, I don't buy the steroids-as-cause argument alone, because power hitting in baseball is not purely a function of strength, and because pitchers were also users too.

Game 41: While you see a chance take it (27-14)

2006-05-19T20:13:00.000-05:00

White Sox 6, Cubs 1. Greg Maddux was an unhappy as Michael Finley at a crotch-punching contest today over the home plate umpire's strike zone, Konerko drove in a bunch of runs, Thome hit an opposite-field dinger, and Mark Buehrle two-hit the Cubs for a White Sox team returned from a 3-4 seven-game trip to outer space. A good start to the three-game insipid fiasco that is "interleague play".

Three notes for right now:

Randy Johnson struggles again for the Yankees. Media wonders what's wrong with him. What's wrong with Randy is he's older than I am.

Is the Cub bench so bad the best they can do for DH is Michael Barrett?

Shane Victorino took over for Aaron Rowand when Rowand broke his nose. Victorino is hitting .373. What are the odds Kenny Williams tries to get Aaron back?

Come inside, come inside

2006-05-16T07:41:00.000-05:00

Whoever scheduled back-to-back series for the White Sox has a cruel sense of humor, with the four games in the HHHDome being following by three games in the Tropi-Can.

Tropicana is another bizarre building, but it has one interesting feature, a real, full dirt infield. I never have liked the sliding-pit ballparks, and have never understood why this is even legal.

Game 37: There I was with my back to the wall... (25-12)

2006-05-15T20:07:00.000-05:00

White Sox 7, Twins 3. Chris Widger actually hit the baseball, as did Joe Crede and Scott Podsednik. They all had three hits, and all actually hit the ball out of the park. Freddy Garcia threw 6 2/3 decent innings, giving up 3 runs, and Cotts and Politte closed out the Twins. Podsednik, virtually given up for dead a couple of weeks ago, is now a .300 hitter. The White Sox win the final game and earn a split on Monday afternoon.

It must be agonizing to be a Twins fan right now. Just about 24 hours ago, they were 6 1/2 games out, and had just tagged Mark Buerhle for 7 runs in the first inning to take a 7-3 lead. A sweep would put them back into the thick of the fight. But the Twin pitching betrayed them, as it has all year when Santana wasn't on the mound, while Buehrle found the root of his problem. The White Sox outscored the Twins 13-3 over the next 17 innings and left Minneapolis with perhaps the most satisfying Twin split in years. In 24 hours, the Twins are 8 1/2 back again, right where they were Thursday night, with 4 games off the schedule.

I suppose, if the Twins fans had been told they'd be neck and neck with the Indians on May 15, and 7 1/2 games from the Tigers and 8 1/2 games away from the White Sox, they would naturally have assumed they'd be the ones on first, with the White Sox having fulfilled Joe Sheehan's expectations and vanished off the face of the pennant race. How strange this season has been for everybody but the White Sox, who are the only team in the division living up to preseason expectations. (That ignores the Tigers, who are more than living up, they're blowing their expectations away.)

I suppose winning three straight division titles (2002-2004) has its consolations, and this Liriano kid looks like a real monster, but the thought that the Twins' micro-dynasty has probably ended has to eat at a true Twin believer. You can't just expect the team to just rise again, not for a while at least; especially not if the GM keeps signing made-to-be-Royals players like Batista and White.

Game 36: I can read your mind (24-12)

2006-05-15T07:39:00.000-05:00

White Sox 9, Minnesota 7. First inning: Hunter robs Thome of 3-run jack, Dye follows one out later with 3-run jack. Then the White Sox play Keystone Kops afield, Buehrle battered for 7 runs (8 unearned) in the first. The White Sox scratched and clawed out six more runs over the next few innings, and the Twins got nothing. White Sox turn triple play. Jenks strikes out the side in the ninth. Just another day at the office.

During the Twin merry-go-round in the first, I was convinced either they were stealing signs or Buehrle was tipping pitches. The ESPN K-Zone system was showing the Twins bashing pitches on the inside corner, outside corner, four inches outside... on the first pitch. It was like they knew what was coming. As it turns out, they did. Post-game reports were that Buehrle was tipping his pitches with his glove position.

This could explain Buehrle's mini-slump over the last few games. If so, the Twins got a little over-eager and let the secret out. If so, let's all give a nice, big hand to them for getting greedy.

The White Sox have to get used to the fact that they'll be microscopically examined by everybody as long as they are on top.

You can tell everyone I'm a damn disgrace

2006-05-14T11:19:00.000-05:00

There is a parallel here between Ozzie and Mark Cuban. Cuban has been fined something close to a million dollars for bitching about the quality (or lack thereof) of NBA officiating. Cuban has been treated like an out-of-control lunatic by the national media, frothing at the mouth every time the refs do something negative to his Mavericks. This ignores the simple fact that, in my opinion, Cuban has been absolutely spot-on right about everything he says. He has made specific recommendations on how to improve officiating, including not rotating everybody, including the bad officials, through key playoff games. Cuban doesn't go along with the pro-wrestling mentality (manage the TV ratings through game officiating), and the major media, instead of exposing the NBA for the hypocritical sham it is, just pretend Cuban is just a lunatic and the NBA is on the up-and-up. (Note: I am *not* a Maverick fan.)

The same thing happens with Ozzie. And it snowballs. Because Ozzie's mouth is great copy, the fact that what Ozzie says is right is getting lost. Ozzie (and Cooper!) got tossed on a seemingly disingenuous basis (arguing balls and strikes -- A checked swing argument with the 1B umpire is not what was meant by "arguing balls and strikes"). The national media story is Ozzie Goes Ballistic, which is typical BS coverage, like the Cuban coverage.

Umpiring errors are rarely mentioned in game stories from the AP, and if they are, it's couched in "objective" language about "controversial" calls and words like "replays appeared to show". If Mark Cuban or Ozzie Guillen can't draw attention to patterns of error, then nothing will ever change -- because the sportswriters are lapdogs everywhere outside New York and Boston -- and we'll have to put up this ever-declining quality of game officiating.

The truth is, baseball, like basketball, is a commercialized amusement. It is run mostly to entertain people. It is theater. We who take it too seriously forget this, and want the better team to prevail, not the better story. Cuban is so rich he'll just go on speaking his mind (or running his mouth). Ozzie's fine will get paid by Jerry Reinsdorf. And so it goes.

Game 35: Deep rotation mutilation

2006-05-13T20:33:00.000-05:00

Tonight is an example of why I get totally blue in the face angry when people tell me how great MLB umpires are. The home plate ump clearly gave Radke an expanded strike zone tonight, pitch after pitch, keeping him in a game, pitches Vazquez didn't get. Then the Twins get four gift runs because the umpires either weren't paying attention or just stunk up the place. First, the first base umpire misses a close call on a chopper to the pitcher, neglecting to notice Castillo running inside the baseline and claiming Konerko came off the bag on the tag and tagged him late. It was a close call, but it was probably wrong, and it leads to a run.

Then both the home plate umpire and first base umpire miss a strikeout when Cuddyer is hit by a pitch he swung at. Ozzie and Don Cooper get tossed, Vazquez gets charged with a bunch of runs, and just to put the icing on the cake, Radke trots out with a 5-4 lead and immediately gets multiple gift calls on pitches off the plate to put an exclamation point on the game, telling me they don't have a clue how bad they screwed up. Unbelievable.

Now, somebody somewhere will say there's a parallel with the ALCS last year. Maybe. But the umpires didn't just toss Scioscia and his pitching coach.

Game 34: Knock me down, it’s [probably] all in vain (23-11)

2006-05-13T10:04:00.000-05:00

So the Twins built up a four-game series in the Hump as their do-or-die. This is probably true for them, mired (until yesterday) 8 1/2 games down in mid-May. They sent Johan Santana to the mound against Jon Garland, and it turned out to be a 10-1 mismatch. Garland got hammered for the fourth time in seven starts and, as the Tribune points out, since his 8-0 start, he's been back to being Average Jon. Sadly, this makes the off-season long-term contract look pretty unfortunate; of course, with what Kris Benson types are making, and given it's a long season, things could get better. Consider, ultimately, that what matters is the White Sox record in games he's started (3-4). Add to this the fact that yesterday was the "get-used-to" game of 2006 for the extraterrestial Metrodome, and the fact that no team was going to get to Johan Santana the way he was dealing, and this one just goes in the "sure loss" category. I don't care how good you are, games where you spot start for your de facto #1 starter (Wednesday) against a defending division champion, and games where you face the real AL Cy Young award winner (Colon's selection last season was bizarre) are not games you'll win without extraordinary effort.

After the skunking, Minnesota has gained a game and now stands 7 1/2 back. The real story here is that the Twins have almost caught the suddenly flailing Indians, who dropped a game to the Tigers last night. It's still too early to start rooting against the Tigers in these intradivisional games, just a bit -- the Indians are still far more dangerous in the long run.

With Contreras on the mend, the White Sox facing three somewhat more favorable matchups (any matchup with a Minny pitcher not named "Johan Santana" is more favorable), and bullpen geezer Jeff Nelson making a return to live games in Charlotte, these last two games still feel like aberrations.

In the air tonight

2006-05-11T21:05:00.000-05:00

Random notes on a rainout day:

The White Sox are supposedly calling up Augie Montero. Take a look at his splits. You have to give this guy a chance. It probably won't work, but he's holding batters to a .143/.241/.186 line, so I don't know he's got anything to prove in Charlotte.

Aaron Rowand broke his nose, Hideki Matsui injured his arm, Frank Thomas injured his leg. An ugly, nasty day.

Speaking of Frank, the Oakland A's website has a story saying Frank Thomas was starting to find his stroke before injuring his quad today running the bases. This is ridiculous. For a quick comparison, look at Frank Thomas' last 50 ab before today and Brian Anderson's last 50 ab. Anderson is a fine-fielding centerfielder, and on Monday night half the ESPN Baseball Tonight yappers wanted to send him to the minors. Thomas is a gimpy late-30s DH. (Admittedly, Thomas drew 3 walks today in a loss before getting hurt, but still, he's got to significantly out-hit a scuffling Brian Anderson to be "finding his stroke".)

I know ESPN has to love it, but the Boston-New York rubber match is now well over three hours and they are in the bottom of the 7th. This is what I hate about Red Sox-Yankee baseball, looooooong, tedious ballgames. The key problem I have with Baseball Prospectus brand of baseball is it is boring. The game needs risk to be exciting, the kind of risk you get from steals and triples. The work-the-pitcher, slow-pitch softball wannabe games that stretch toward 11pm EDT just bore me to tears. The good news is it saves us from the inanity of more Baseball Tonight, which would consist of, well, half an hour of analysis of the Yankee-Red Sox tilt and Barry Bonds' bases on balls.

Joe Morgan, discussing the heirs to Barry Bonds' home run chase, tiptoed around the question of why people don't like A-Rod either last night. Joe, we don't like him because from what we know, he seems to be a selfish, surly jerk. Steinbrenners' jabs are just gravy to us in the flyovers.

Now, the Twins. Thank god 8 1/2 games is a long way back.

Game 33: Always look on the bright side (23-10)

2006-05-11T07:21:00.000-05:00

Game 33 was a train wreck, with cup-of-java rookie knuckleballer Charles Haeger walking everybody (including the Angel batboy) in a short 4 1/3 inning, 6-run (5 earned) stint that led to his relief and his demotion. Brian Anderson hit a three-run bomb as the White Sox clawed and scratched back to 6-5, only to lose 12-5 after a six-run Angel ninth. The Angels put a major league lineup on the field for Haeger, their first in at least a week.

Vince Galloro jumps all over my pet peeve of bullpen thrashing this morning. I agree. McCarthy is pulled for Cotts after a double in the ninth and the White Sox having indulged in the current intentional walk fetish to put Guerrero on. Cotts smokes Garret Anderson. Now Ozzie goes and gets Jenks, who doesn't have it. The main reason he went to get Jenks was Salmon is righthanded, and he's playing match-up. When Jenks gives up a couple of runs, Ozzie goes and gets lefthander Matt Thornton to pitch to Robb Quinlan and Jose Molina, righthanders. This leads (predictably) to four extra runs, because Thornton is a true LOOGY, and shouldn't be allowed to pitch to righthanders with large platoon splits like Quinlan. Cotts, on the other hand, is not a LOOGY, and should be allowed to face righthanders as needed. ("Where have you gone, Jeff Nelson? Bridgeport turns its lonely eyes to you." Nah, doesn't work.)

There are some good things about this little fiasco. First, the White Sox made the Angels work to win a game where they were fortunate enough to face a jittery rookie with a wild knuckleball. Second, BA got two hits and generally has looked competent at the plate lately. Third, Haeger was apparently an emergency option while McCarthy was being "stretched". Maybe -- just maybe -- Ozzie will figure out that Jenks is best used to start innings, too! Getting back to 6-5 against Ervin Santana and Brendan Donnelly is an accomplishment, and the game situation forced Scioscia to use Shields and Rodriguez, which may (or may not) pay dividends in the future.

Tonight, Kelvim The Vengeful goes against Jon Garland. One presumes that if Kelvim hits AJ again, he'll get tossed, but MLB has been remarkably lax with appropriate warnings in the past. If they do give a warning, naturally they'll play kindergarten teacher and warn everybody, regardless of history.

Game 32: Killing me softly (23-9)

2006-05-10T18:00:00.000-05:00

The good news was the White Sox 9-1 trouncing of the Angels. The bad news was Jose Contreras going on the DL with a pinched sciatic nerve in his lower back. Contreras, named the "best pitcher in the American League" by two of the three ballplayer-turned-yappers on Baseball Tonight on Monday, will miss a couple of weeks. The White Sox called up 22-year-old knuckleball prodigy Charles Haeger to take his place, at least for now.

I am not optimistic. The odds are just kind of long for a knuckleball pitcher. Since Haeger's never been in the majors before, we don't have any matchup data, but we can check the matchups for Tim Wakefield, Steve Sparks, and Dennis Springer. They aren't encouraging, Guerrero and Anderson have mashed these kinds of guys.

But, if he does work out decently, his trade value will skyrocket.

Game 31: The doorway before them is barred (22-9)

2006-05-07T16:43:00.000-05:00

The White Sox bullpen was almost perfect for three innings against the Royals to back up an uncharacteristic Mark Buehrle start, and Pablo Ozuna and Joe Crede provided the offense in a 3-2 White Sox win against the lowly Royals.

Buehrle just wasn't sharp at all, but until back-to-back home runs of a tiring Buehle in the sixth, the Royals couldn't take advantage. It took Buehrle 114 pitches to get through 6 innings. The White Sox couldn't do much with Mark Redman.

The only excitement in the first five innings was supplied when Mark Grudzielanek was called out on strikes in the fifth. (The plate umpire today was lenient with high and low pitches but wouldn't give either side the corners.) Grudz clearly said "bullshit" to the umpire as he stalked back to the dugout. Buddy Bell obviously said something worse, because Eric Cooper ejected him.

Pablo Ozuna hit a shocking one-out triple to deep left center field to drive in Widger and Anderson (who had singled) to tie the game. Ozuna was promptly erased on a blown suicide squeeze when Iguchi popped up to the pitcher. I am sure this decision will be second-guessed, given that Iguchi is hitting .331. The White Sox had three straight hits off Redman, and he seemed to be weakening, but ill-fated small ball gave him new life.

Cliff Politte sailed through the seventh and got one out in the eighth, but then what Ozuna giveth, he almost taketh back. Angel Berroa drove a fly ball to the warning track, but Ozuna got turned around and misplayed the ball into a double. Matt Thornton came on, popped up Aaron Guiel, and then Brandon McCarthy struck out Buck with a nasty curve over the inside corner. Who says the White Sox don't have a bullpen?

With two out in the bottom of the ninth, Thome doubled to left center. It was a fairly ordinary fly ball, but the Royals were playing that silly Ted Williams shift, and Thome poked two hits to that region. (This could be important if enough advance scouts saw it to reduce the shifting a bit.) The Royals mysteriously decided to walk Konerko to get to Crede. Now, with one out, this would be a defensible move. With two out, and Crede hitting .335 over the last 49 games, it's bizarre. Crede battled Elmet Dessens for what seemed like forever, fouling off multiple low-and-away offerings, then savagely ripped an inside fastball into left field to drive in the go-ahead run.

That set the stage for Bobby Jenks, on the hill for the first time since being charged with a blown save on Friday. Jenks struck out Matt Stairs with a knee-high fastball for the first out. He caught what appeared to be a break on a chopper to Uribe, whose throw the umpires said nipped Robinson at first. He blew Esteban German away for the last strike and the game was over.

Notes from the division race:

The Tigers were unlucky enough to draw Johan Santana today and he beat them 4-2. Ordonez hit a two-run shot to make the game semi-interesting. The White Sox now lead by 2 1/2 games.

Travis Hafner is playing for the Indians today. The Cleveland announcers say he has the flu. Eric Wedge drives his players like oarmen in a Roman galley. This will come back to haunt him.

The 2005 White Sox were even better, 24-7 after 31 games.

One other note: Vince Galloro wants Boone Logan gone. He joins the huge chorus of naysayers. I almost bought his reasoning until he went off on McCarthy a little. McCarthy had some rotten luck in a couple of games -- allowing opposite field singles is not a character defect. The reason McCarthy doesn't go back down is he has nothing left to learn in AAA. His last stint there ended in utter domination.

Hey, Joe, where you going with that bat in your hand?

2006-05-07T11:57:00.000-05:00

It's been commented on a lot, but I don't think we've quite realized the depth in the change in Joe Crede since he came off the DL last season after he broke his finger. His slam the other night was a definite hint he's now an impact player... but how much of one?

Crede's played in 48 regular season games since then, just shy of one third of a season. Using the incredible Baseball Musings day-by-day database, we can see:

He's hit .335 since that day. (56-for-167) with an on-base average of .379.
He's hit a dozen homers and 11 doubles and is slugging .617.
That gives him an OPS of 996.
He's walked 11 times, but struck out only 14 times. Effectively he's cut his strikeouts in half.

So, how good is that? Over the same window (9/10/2005 to today):

Eric Chavez is at .276/.354/.568. Crede has out-hit Chavez.
A-Rod is at .280/.398/.538. Crede has actually out-hit A-Rod.

Actually, he's pretty much out-hit everybody. I won't suggest that this will continue, but the small sample size is starting to get big enough to discount, and anyone who has seen him play knows there is a huge change in his approach and his confidence. It's pretty obvious Crede stopped trying to yank low and away curveballs. I don't know how many other things Crede changed during his down-time. Whatever he changed, he's the best third baseman in the league right now, including that self-important egotistical transplant we all know about.

So what does this mean for Josh Fields, last night's MiLB "star of the day" for the suddenly invicible 23-6 Charlotte Knights? Fields is hitting .307/.374/.511, which is pretty damned good. He is nowhere near as polished a defender as Crede and probably never will be. He may be benefitting from the close fences in Charlotte. But, regardless, you can't say he isn't adjusting to AAA, and a decision will have to be made soon because he's showing signs of being "ready".

It means, in the short term, the serious luxury here allows the White Sox to think over their relationship with Scott Boras. Crede's a home-grown player, a key cog in a high profile championship team, who seems to show signs of blossoming into the star we all hoped he would be.

I expect Fields will be harvested for middle relief if Crede is still hitting .3-something at the All-Star break.

It's been commented that the White Sox have an awful record when playing three or more substitutes. The Cheat first brought this to my attention back on May 2nd. That begs the question of "why"? Here are some observations:

The White Sox are 0-5 when Ozuna starts a game
The White Sox are 2-4 when Widger starts
They are 8-2 when Mackowiak starts in center field, 1-3 when he starts in right

What I think this shows is that Widger to a certain extent and Ozuna to a much larger extent have value off the bench, but perhaps together they sabotage the offense and defense to the point where the team is compromised.

Chris Widger is probably the one player who is "on notice" in my book. He's hitting a weak .211, isn't a developmental prospect, and has seen pitchers roll up a 7.66 ERA in his 47 innings. I know, catcher ERA is not deeply meaningful, or so say all the studies... but if Pierzynski were to get hurt, the White Sox would probably have to reach into Charlotte and get Chris Stewart as the interim regular.

Game 30: Got no time to slow (21-9)

2006-05-07T10:31:00.000-05:00

The White Sox bounced back from their Friday night fiasco with a 9-2 extermination of the Royals. Javier Vazquez once again flirted with a no-hitter for five plus and ended up giving up a couple of runs against his favorite punching bag. The White Sox pounded Runelvys Hernandez, with Brian Anderson hitting a home run, Tad Iguchi collecting four hits, and Jim Thome bashing a three-run bomb. Today they send Buehrle out against Mark Redman.

It was a perfect night for the White Sox elsewhere. Detroit's bullpen blew up against the Twins, as Todd Jones couldn't hold a one run lead, and Cleveland was shut down by Joel Piniero out in Microsoftland.

The Cheat quibbles with Black Betsy this weekend and has a comment about Podsednik's loss of speed. I differ, though; speed doesn't slump, per se, it erodes over time. Podsednik's 30 years old, and it is possible that he's lost the half a step that makes him more than a fourth outfielder. This is probably a good thing, though, not a bad thing, in that it is happening before the White Sox do something extremely stupid with him (contractually speaking). Podsednik's value to the White Sox is something that mostly eludes the numbers. If he loses that "something", he's a backup outfielder.

[He] said it, and now [he'll] regret it

2006-05-06T14:17:00.000-05:00

Way back in January, Frank Thomas said that Jim Thome had more injuries than he did last season and is not a better hitter. As a public service, this year the Razor will track their respective statistics and let you be the judge.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG
Jim Thome	28	94	29	28	4	0	12	29	26	26	.298	.460	.723
Frank Thomas	26	92	11	17	2	0	5	14	11	16	.185	.276	.370

There is a difference between playing in USCF and Oakland. Thomas is hitting .209/.346/.302 on the road, and Thome .300/.417/.660 on the road.

This is the healthy Frank Thomas this year. He's not getting better, either, 2-for-13 in May so far.

There's a growing feeling of hysteria

2006-05-06T13:14:00.000-05:00

Lose a tough one to the KC and the hysteria starts to come out. This was Jenks' first blown save, and the closer getting squeezed a little and giving up some doiky little singles can lead to big trouble.

Some of the many observers:

The Cheat goes over the top a little with his analysis, and continues his trend of Boone Logan lamentations. Looking at the highlight clip on MLB.com it was pretty evident that the two-run single off Logan that supplied the eventual winning runs was a lucky poke off a pretty good pitch. He also frets about not using Neil Cotts (the answer to the implied question of where was Neal is "getting over being used a lot lately.") Cheat's also on the warpath about the White Sox overusing the bench (and going 1-5 in games with large numbers of substitutions), here he's spot on.

Several non-media sources have commented on a questionably tight strike zone by the home plate umpire contributing to the lengthy Royal rally. Over at the predictable White Sox Interactive website, "PeteWard" observed that "Sox would have won if the bullpen threw strikes. Period. You can't hang this one on the ump." No, but you have to consider it when you evaluate your players. Failure to call out a batter on strikes when he takes a clear strike gives the batter an additional life (ask Angels fans about this one) and once that happens, anything can happen. The pitcher has a responsibility to shake it off and do his best, but when the serendipitous batter flips a single off the end of the bat to left, the non-call becomes significant and needs to be evaluated. I wouldn't be surprised if the Royals did get some benefit of the doubt out of pity from Gerry Davis. Frankly, they need it.

Black Betsy as always points out that playing approximately .700 baseball is nothing to sneeze at even if some games don't go the way you want. SuperNoVa's lobbying for bullpen help. It didn't make his post, but in the email he mentions he threw out the names of several Marlin retreats (Franklyn German, Randy Messenger, Todd Wellemeyer). That's the hysterical part (and I mean it in the crazy sense not the funny sense) -- these guys have all proved they aren't part of any solution. Messenger has issued almost 6 walks per 9 innings in his brief major league career; German 102 walks in 135 innings; and Wellemeyer 69 walks in 97 innings. Just because these three have kept the consequences of their extensive histories down for five whole weeks doesn't mean anything. In hindsight, the three more-or-less lucky singles last night in the Royals loss were not the scary part, the four walks were. Walks kill. A few flares here and there don't tell you anything about your pitchers. Smart teams don't panic and start trading valuable talent for flashes in the pan retreads who will more than likely be worse than what they already have.

Sox Machine correctly observes that Elarton's excellent starting pitching effort might have had something to do with the Royals' being in the game. Elarton's pitched three really nice games against the White Sox already.

Here's my two cents worth on the bullpen: it's too early to panic because the "indicators" of basic badness just aren't there. The pen's ERA is 4.70, but this is somewhat the result of overmanaging, not performance. Ozzie's issued 8 intentional walks, and has been drawn to the presence of three lefthanders in the bullpen like some kind of manager-crack, frequently changing pitchers for temporary matchups and generally thrashing the bullpen in a way that is reminscent of the worst case scenario for Tony LaRussa. (Ozzie's not alone here; check out , for example, Scioscia's loogy jones now that he's got a notionally reliable lefthanded short guy, and the somewhat predictable catastrophic results of Romero's appearances.)

Politte has not been right and McCarthy has struggled a little, but in McCarthy's case there's a bunch of bad luck involved. McCarthy's given up, what, 15 singles already to go with 2 doubles and a home run. This is not the profile of a pitcher who is getting hammered, it's the profile of a pitcher who is not getting much luck with batted balls.

Jenks issued his second and third walks of the season so far, and pitched for a third consecutive day for only the third time in his career. Each previous time has resulted in a poor outing. He blew his first save in ten chances. Let's keep this in perspective, shall we?

Oh, yeah... lost in all this was Jon Garland's good performance. He gave up only one run, that the result of a double just out of reach of Ross Gload's dive and a single, in seven workmanlike innings. I worry far more about Garland's lack of strikeouts and his penchant for the long ball than I do about Boone Logan.

By the way, this blog is now one year old.

Like the sun going down on me (20-9)

2006-05-05T22:56:00.000-05:00

This is baseball's revenge for stealing that Wednesday game against the Mariners. Blowing a 2-1 game in the ninth to the Royals and losing 5-4. Panic!

This was the first time Ozzie tried to use Jenks on three straight days this season. He's only done this twice before, 9/18-20 last year and 9/28-10/1 last year. Both previous times they tried this, Jenks has struggled, giving up runs. It is quite likely he just can't pitch that much. Cotts wasn't available (I assume) because of two straight appearances. Therefore, it looks like the pitching staff is still kind of winded from the 11 inning game the other night and Ozzie's newfound matchup tinkering.

The great thing about the White Sox is they send Vazquez and Buehrle out the next two games.They face Runelvys Hernandez, who most of the White Sox lineup absolutely own.

Because of the wonderful things he does (19-8)

2006-05-04T07:32:00.000-05:00

Pablo Ozuna didn't stop tying a game in the bottom of the ninth with a shocking 2-out solo shot. In extras he hustled a two-out groundball single up the middle into a double (essentially stealing second on Jeremy Reed) and scoring on Uribe's flare to win the game 6-5 over the Mariners. The White Sox had taken a 4-1 lead on Crede's slam, then given all four runs back in one of those painful innings the White Sox didn't have much last season. Ozuna saved the day.

Ozuna is now hitting .524 (11-for-21). Here's hoping Ozzie has the sense to realize that this won't persist over 250 at bats.

There's a lot of whining this week about booing. The fans in Cleveland got a scolding or two for booing Jim Thome. I don't have a problem with it. Fans have a right to boo anybody they want to. They have the moral high ground if:

The player left their team for more money plain and simple, or
The player said or did something really, really obnoxious

Cleveland fans have every right to boo Thome. He left for money. White Sox fans would be within their rights to boo Bartolo Colon as well. White Sox fans wouldn't boo Aaron Rowand because he didn't leave for money, he left because he had to. Now, the booing of Pierzynski in Anaheim (and hitting him with a pitch) was beyond the pale; Pierzynski's sin was being a red-ass baseball player.

Believe it or not, I'm swinging at air (18-8)

2006-05-02T18:34:00.000-05:00

Mark Buehrle versus C. C. Sabathia turned out out to be a stinker as Ozzie sent out a lineup chock full o' subs and Mark Buehrle sent out his evil twin in a 7-1 Indians win. The White Sox kept putting runners on -- 15, for a .357 on base percentage -- but they left 14 on base. Travis Hafner, a.k.a the Project Donkey, slammed a first inning three-run shot and the Indians later fattened their lead, partly courtesy of home plate umpire Jerry Meals blowing a play at the plate. Still, with their low-wattage lineup and Buehrle having an off-day, it wasn't going to happen anyway. The Cheat points out that the White Sox record strongly correlates to how many regulars are subbed for. Basically, with 3+ subs, they play .200 ball (1-4). After Jermaine Dye left to nurse his nagging calf, only five regulars were left in the game (and two of those being the slumping Juan Uribe and Brian Anderson). This one wasn't meant to be.

Now, some might argue that given that this is the Indians, the White Sox should try to win at all costs. Eric Wedge started his regular versus-lefties lineup. I don't know about that. I know Victor Martinez is a durable catcher, but his playing time so far this year has been absolutely brutal. He's caught 220 innings so far, of a possible 238. Given that the Indians pitching so far has been (5.54) pretty bad, that's a lot of pitches to catch, and a lot of wear and tear. The Indians' backup catcher is Kelly Shoppach, who isn't a bad player at all, so it makes very little sense at this point to just ride the regulars into the dirt.

I wish I hadn't ripped Jhonny boy a bit back; he must have read my gibes because he hit the heck out of the ball the last two days. He's still not a #3 hitter.

As for the title line, it refers of course to Brian Anderson. Patience is a good thing, but he's now 10-for-71 with 4 extra base hits, 9 walks, and 25 strikeouts. That's pretty horrible. Mackowiak isn't a solution even part time, which leaves the White Sox either nibbling at some washed up geriatric or bringing up Jerry Owens if Anderson doesn't break out of this funk soon. I've just about had it. [[Question: How many of the White Sox starting pitchers have higher lifetime major league batting averages than center fielder Brian Anderson? Answer: Three. Javier Vazquez (.214), Freddy Garcia (.194), and Jon Garland (.167). ]]

Speaking of washed up geriatrics, the White Sox signed Jeff Nelson to a minor-league contract today. This probably means that the Sox have officially given up on Dustin Hermanson. I'm not wild at all about this, as Nelson's struggled for several years. A slider pitcher, Nelson's developed into a nibbler as his fastball vanished. They didn't sign this guy to shore up the Charlotte pen. The best likely outcome is probably the Yankees desperately trying to trade for Nelson in July and Williams picking up a prospect on the cheap.

With my heart in my mouth (18-7)

2006-05-02T07:26:00.000-05:00

The White Sox held off the charging Indians, nursing a 7-0 lead to a heart-stopping 8-6 victory at the Jake. Paul Konerko's three-run shot in the first, a bunch of Podsednik steals, and a solid Javier Vazquez left the White Sox with a 7-1 lead after 6. Brandon McCarthy, however, continued his road woes, loading the bases on a couple of singles and a walk and then watching Travis Hafner his a towering slam just inside the RF foul pole to make it 7-5. Jim Thome drove in Scott Podsednik for an insurance run, but then the Indians rallied to put a couple of men on, drive in a run, and then watch Bobby Jenks blow away the last two hitters (both of whom could have won the game in dramatic fashion with taters) to seal a victory.

From the post-game quotes, it's clear the near-miss left the Indians with a very bad taste in their mouths. Turning a blowout into a close loss envigorates young, on-the-rise teams. It doesn't envigorate contenders, it makes them frustrated. The Indians have a tired bullpen, a catcher who desperately needs a game off, and a rehabbing pitcher starting a noon game against the hottest team in the league. The White Sox are actually favored this morning.

It says something, I think, about Joe Crede's shocking change in performance that he was 1-for-4 with a walk in a game where he was invisible. At .310/.362/.529, he's playing as well or better than we hoped when he was tearing up Winston-Salem almost a decade ago.

Cheat follows the time-honored White Sox fan tradition of picking apart the way the Indians came back to make it "interesting". I've got no quibbles with his observations, but he missed the two critical (as it turned out) outs Boone Logan got in the seventh. After Hafner's slam, Logan came in and shut down the Indian rally in short order, despite facing Martinez and the sickeningly hot Ben Broussard.

It's just hard to say anything negative about a team that's won 17 out of their last 20 games. Since the shocking Saturday, April 8 4-3 loss to the Royals to drop the team to 1-4 (just before I left on an airplane for a quick trip to England), the White Sox have lost once to the Blue Jays and twice to the Mariners. That's it. It would be nice if Brian Anderson and Juan Uribe would start hitting, and if Garcia and Garland would start pitching the way we'd like. But it hasn't really hurt yet.

I believe I'll dust my broom (17-7)

2006-04-30T19:32:00.000-05:00

Well! When Orlando Cabrera lined a two-run shot over the wall in the fifth to give the Angels a 5-3 lead, I thought two things: (1) two out of three won't be so bad, and (2) Jon Garland just is not the same pitcher he was last season. The second thought is mostly true (the Angels scored 5 runs off him with underlying numbers that ought to get them

The obvious problem with the first thought is the White Sox are better than even I think they are. They don't make a lot of mental mistakes, and they never give up. This is a professional team in the highest sense of that word. And, like a consummate professional team, when faced with a deficit, they systematically got the two runs back in the very next inning. And they can still play Ozzieball, tacking on a go-ahead run with a textbook top-of-the-ninth small-ball rally (single, pinch runner, steal, sacrifice bunt, wild pitch). Neil Cotts took the ninth and got his first save. If anyone was wondering, "Where was Jenks", I think the little detail of Anderson and Erstad being lefthanded hitters (and Jenks pitching the previous two nights) was the reason why. Cotts and Thornton looked good, and so did Politte as the White Sox stifled the Angels over the last three innings.

As I said, the White Sox don't make a lot of mental mistakes. The Angels did, when Tim Salmon ran his team out of the sixth, getting doubled off second while trying to score on a Texas Leaguer, and getting a baserunner killed on an ill-advised play in the top of the seventh with no outs. The Angels didn't get another baserunner after wasting two in a row.

The only batter hit by a pitch was Joe Crede. So much for the Ozzie-is-evil theories of Angel fans for one day. I'm waiting for news of Escobar's punishment. I'll wait a long time, I bet.

Other division notes as April comes to an end:

Detroit continues to treat the once-might Minnesota Twins as their personal whipping boys. Are they for real? Probably not. They are getting spectacular pitching, but Robertson and Verlander have very clear histories of fading on the backstretch. Baseball Prospectus 2006 points out, usefully, that Jim Leyland has a history of riding his starting pitchers into the ground. They are getting spectacular hitting from players who usually wind up in the doctor's office sooner or later. Leyland doesn't seem to know the meaning of the word "day off". Detroit fans centainly deserve a thrill, and this team has enough veterans and talent to win 85 games, but I really don't think they can hang with the White Sox or the Indians for more than a couple of months.

Minnesota looks absolutely awful. Silva, Lohse, and Radke can't get anybody out at all, and except for Lohse, it's because of the long ball. Very low strikeout ratios are often a warning that a pitcher is living on the edge, and all three of them look like they slipped off into the abyss. The Twins don't have the offense to overcome mediocrity on the mound. This probably would mean Liriano into the rotation, except the Twins' financially have to try to recover at least two of the three tanked pitchers. However, looking forward, I can see Ron Gardenhire playing the role of British Vice-Admiral Beatty at Jutland, saying as his elegant battle cruisers exploded unexpectedly, "There seems to be something wrong with our bloody ships today!"

Cleveland insists on plugging SS Jhonny Peralta into the three hole in their lineup, despite his .230/.284/.360 line. As Black Betsy graciously and generously points out, I was skeptical of Peralta's true level of ability before the season based on a record fattened by victimizing mop-up men last season. So far Peralta looks like he ought to be hitting ninth. But, hey, I'll take it. I love it when good teams misuse their resources, especially in the same division.

Thanks to Black Betsy for the Public Service Announcement. He really is too kind. I really don't care how many people read this; I write this blog for me. But I don't mind sharing it. If you're reading this far, thanks.

Somebody's Gonna Hurt Someone (16-7)

2006-04-30T09:34:00.000-05:00

Jose Contreras won again, giving up one run in 8 1/3 to the Angels. A Thome homer and a long-sequence rally by the White Sox plated two runs and the bullpen held on in the ninth when Edgardo Alfonso lined out to Juan Uribe with the tying and winning runs aboard.

Kelvim Escobar, obviously still annoyed at AJ Pierzynski about the ALCS, hit him with a 1-1 pitch in the second inning. This prompted the umpires to issue the usual warnings. Mike Scioscia whined about being warned when Escobar did the obvious, Guillen complained about the constant parallel warnings when his batters get hit, saying his batters get hit all the time and he doesn't have a history of retaliation. He has a point. For the record, last season White Sox hitters were hit 79 times, Sox opponents 52. The year before, it was 62-42. So far this year, it's 11-7. So, over the last 345 games, Ozzie's teams have been hit 152 times and hit opponnets 99 times. Ozzie's right. The umpire should either have only warned the Angels or, actually, simply tossed Escobar on the spot. Pierzynski is the only batter Escobar has hit all year. Given that he hit him the first time he saw him, on the third pitch, the idea that the action could be random strains credibility to the breaking point. At this point, the league should probably just tell Mr. Escobar he can take 5 games off; if they don't do something, the White Sox will be in the position of having to retaliate at some point, baseball being slightly savage about such things.

I assume Chris Widger starts tomorrow's day game, giving the Angel boo-birds a day of rest. Now, Widger's 1-for-13, and because last season was anomalous, you have to look down at the minors and ask yourself what's there. Chris Stewart is there; Stewart's a brilliant defensive catcher without much of a bat, kind of like Chris Widger.

Other note: Cleveland lost 7-5 to the Rangers, in part because Grady Sizemore got caught off first base on a line drive on a game-ending double play. Nice to see Grady pull a rock. Maybe it will bother him for a week?

What was wood became alive

2006-04-29T11:33:00.000-05:00

Question: When does a 15-7 record make you uneasy about a season?

Answer: When you don't get there the way you expected.

There's more than one quirky thing about statistics. Consider that the White Sox were expected to continue to play the way they did last year, but through the first 22 games, most of us fans are secretly worried about the team because they aren't. The starting pitching hasn't dominated the way we wanted it to, the team is not playing "Ozzieball" at all...

The truth is, the pitching is dominating. Two statistical trends are warping our perception of the data. First, run scoring is up across the board. The median number of runs scored in the AL already is 109, and the median team ERA is 4.75. Second, the White Sox have, through either coincidence or offical scoring decisions, allowed only one unearned run so far this season. This means the staff ERA (4.11) is virtually indisinguishable from the runs-allowed rate (4.16). This is the third lowest rate in the league, behind only the Tigers (3.64) and Yankees (4.11), both of whom play in more pitcher-friendly parks. The defense has contributed, of course. So far Brian Anderson's defensive statistics have been eye-popping, and Iguchi has looked a lot better (when it isn't raining).

The offense, however, is a different story. A wonderful story. Second only to the Indians in runs scored in the league, third in walks (walks!), third in homers, seventh in steals, and tied for ninth with the A's and Rangers in sac bunts. I doubt that there are a dozen people who, before the season, would have predicted this change in personality by the offense. The homers, sure, but the walks? Rest assured, it can't continue... or can it? Uribe, Podsednik, and Anderson have been pretty bad at the plate and the team has scored six runs a game anyway. Sure, Thome's starting to cool off, and Konerko and Dye can't keep it up forever. But this is a more balanced offensive team, and it's starting to look more like the 2004 team would have if not for the injuries, except with better defense and much better, deeper pitching.

Watch The Monkey Get Hurt (15-7)

2006-04-29T09:40:00.000-05:00

Whew. What was once an 8-2 lead over the Angels dwindled to 8-5 as Brandon McCarthy struggled for a second time. Freddy Garcia teased a quality start out of nothing, and in relief Neil Cotts pitched well and Bobby Jenks, called upon to extinguish Vladimir Guerrero in the ninth before the Rally Monkey could get warmed up, whiffed him with a curve. Garcia's velocity is still down (this is a common problem with WBC participants, apparently) and he's got control problems too. Thank you Mister Selig for your silly stunt.

Baseball was meant to be played in the Eastern and Central time zones; if you don't believe me, ask anybody east of the Rockies. Saturday mornings after staying up late to track baseball games tend to bring out the naked blade of the Razor:

It is always good for White Sox fans to see Jeff Weaver get pummeled. Weaver was a second-round draft choice of the White Sox in 1997, but he refused to sign. He has since pitched for the Tigers, Yankees, Dodgers, and now for the Angels. He goes on the list with Bobby Seay and Bobby Hill for White Sox fans, the list of players we love to see fail. Yes, we know it's a business, and being drafted isn't a slave auction, but we don't have to root for them, now do we?
Speaking of business, the Angels are an interesting one. They won the World Series in 2002 with a combination of home-grown talent, shrewd trades, and scrap-heap reclamation projects (see White Sox, 2005). The next year, they had an off season. The response from owner Artie Moreno has been to try to buy a championship, Yankees-style. In the 2003-4 offseason, they signed Kelvin Escobar, Bartolo Colon, Jose Guillen, and Vladimir Guerrero. In the 2004-5 offseason, they signed Steve Finley, Paul Byrd, and Orlando Cabrera. Last offseason, they signed Weaver and we all know they went hard after Paul Konerko. It's hard for me to root for teams that hire that many mercenaries, players whose original teams (and fans) really want them back. Paul Konerko made a comment last fall that was telling, something about how he couldn't think about leaving without thinking of some kid wearing his jersey being crushed if he left. The Angels are full of people who don't care about that at all. And baseball's future is poorer for it.
I have been impressed that the incessant whining about last fall has stopped. The Angels spent a bit of time bitching about the Pierzynski Affair and the Finley Controversy, although mysteriously they all seem to forget Cabrera's flagrant interference with a double play in Game One that scored the winning run, or Scot Shields getting a key checked-swing "third strike" on Paul Konerko that shouldn't have been called. I guess the Angels channeled their anger into buying a few more soulless vagabond players instead of pretending that they wuz robbed.

Thanks, that was[n't] fun (14-7)

2006-04-28T07:24:00.000-05:00

Dropping two of three to the Mariners is not a good way to start a West Coast trip, but it was unsurprising. The White Sox were handcuffed by two lefthanders, bookending a bombardment of Joel Piniero, and escaped from Washington state with only one of the three games.

Unrelated comments:

Is there anybody else out there who is completely sick of the NFL draft already? Next they're will be breathless reporting of Vince Young's breakfast menu and Reggie Bush's latest stool sample. We're talking about 22-year-old kids. At least baseball tends to be more measured about their entry-level talent.
Baseball announced that they will "not celebrate" Barry Bonds' 715th home run. Give me a break. When Bonds hit 661, the Giants made a huge deal about it. Either it's a real accomplishment, or it's not. If it's a real accomplishment, give it its due. If it's not, suspend him. Yeah, the steroid era was bad for the game's reputation, and we all pretty much know in our heart of hearts that Barry was doing something naughty. So were a lot of the pitchers he was facing, and the owners were cynically bringing in the fences 30 feet, and God knows what to believe about the baseballs. I don't see ownership giving back the money. Bonds may seem like a jerk, but he's hit 711 home runs, which is more than all but two people in history. If he's actually doing it dishonestly, stop him. If you can't prove that, shut the hell up. This limbo where Barry Bonds is being semi-ignored is just hypocrisy.
Cleveland's bombardment of Boston yesterday seemed to me to be aided and abetted by more than a slight bit of homerism from the home plate umpire. The Indians got several close pitchers on both sides of the plate. It's probably just a coincidence, but the idea that the umpires could manage pennant races for increased excitement has to have crossed somebody's mind at some point; the Indians were in danger of messing up the pennant race early by soiling the bed; and the Yankees need some help as they have spectacularly poor timing in the run scoring escapades.
Will super-prospect Delmon Young's action, hitting an umpire with a thrown bat in AAA on Wednesday, cost him the rest of the season? Anything less sets a terrible example for the rest of the game.

Baby, Baby, Where Did Our Love Go? (13-6)

2006-04-25T19:31:00.000-05:00

The White Sox started a bunch o' backups (Cintron, Mackowiak, Ozuna) and phoned in a 3-runs-in-11-innings depressing performance in a 4-3 loss. Garland's looking for his mojo, which he left somewhere in 2005. At least Detroit lost, too, and the White Sox are done with Jamie Moyer for a while.

Ex-Sox watch:

Frank Thomas, with Oakland, is supposedly completely healthy. As of right now, he's 11-for-65 (.169) with 2 doubles, 4 homers, 6 walks, an OBP around .240. I've seen him bat maybe 16 times this year because of the constant Ranger games and he looks absolutely terrible. He *looks* great in the on-deck circle, but when he gets to the plate, his bat seems noticeably slower than last year, he's chasing marginal pitches, and he runs like he's got a bowling ball attached to his foot. As of right now, he does not have even one opposite field hit this season. All of his hits have been to left or left center. Is Billy Beane losing patience? I mean, Thomas is healthy, which is good for him, but he's sucking, which isn't. They keep letting him try to hit his way out of the mess, but it just isn't working so far.
Carl Everett, with Seattle, is walking a lot. So, where was this last year? He's only hitting .222, but with more walks than hits, he's got a pretty good OBP.
Aaron Rowand's doing fine in Philly, hitting just over .300 but, as usual, not walking at all. I don't think they're expecting him to, so it's not a big deal.
Geoff Blum picked up where he left off, at 2-for-18 with the Padres.
Timo Perez is in AAA, with the Memphis Redbirds.
Willie Harris is back in the majors after initially starting the season with the PawSox. He's hitting a robust .100.
Luis Vizcaino looks decent in the desert. allowing 2 runs in 10 innings.
El Duque, well, doesn't, at 1-3 with a 6.33 ERA.
Gio Gonzalez and Daniel Haigwood are in Reading (not in the Gaol, hopefully) and pitching nicely by all accounts.

One other comment: Last night, Jacque Jones hit a 3-run home run against the Marlins to give the Cubs the lead in a game they won 6-3. He stood at the plate and admired his shot, which just cleared the basket in left (opposite) field. It's nice to know that you can take the guy out of Minnesota but he's still a bit of a twinkie.

They say she comes on a pale horse, but I'm sure I hear a train

2006-04-24T07:47:00.000-05:00

The White Sox killed Minnesota yesterday and now travel to Seattle and Southern California for an Oakland-free road trip. I wonder, will Bat-Girl have a Legovision re-enactment of the Twins getting their heads handed to them? Or was it their butts painted blue?

I always dread Seattle. The White Sox usually play poorly in Seattle, ever since the Mariners first set up shop in the KingTomb almost 30 years ago. Safeco isn't quite as bizarre, but still it's weird. Seattle was the scene of the final act of the Billy-Koch-as-closer era two years ago, when, the day before I was to fly to San Diego to spend a few days testing the Titleist Club and Ball Performance Monitor, I watched Koch explode on ESPN as Jon Miller described the debacle. It was a microcosm of the season, but, at the time, we didn't know it. The White Sox went 4-2 in King County last year, so maybe this isn't exactly Oakland. And any stadium with trains is a stadium to be lauded!

Speaking of ESPN, last night Joe Morgan told a story that struck me as bizarre. Describing the "Alfonso Soriano to left field" saga, Morgan told us that the reason Soriano moved to left was that Jose Vidro can't play left field. Sure. It couldn't be because Soriano is a wretched second baseman, now could it? I love Joe Morgan, and I know he has an emmy, but come on, Joe, we're smarter than that.

Everyday they write the book

2006-04-23T10:51:00.000-05:00

Baseball Prospectus 2006, Goldman et al, Workman, $18.95

Two nights ago, stuck in a Barnes and Noble waiting out my daughter's community service (honor society, not criminal justice!), I caved and picked up a copy of BP2006. BP is must-read for anybody interested in the data-analysis side of baseball, from general managers to player agents to serious fans. The book and the website are always thought-provoking, usually entertaining, and often well written as well.

I just wish they weren't so damned arrogant. From the blurbs on the back cover trumpeting what they got right to the self-congratulatory throwing-around of "best" everywhere inside (which they are, but they don't have to keep telling me this), the book is indelibly marred by the constant self-promotion. Take this: "In this book, Baseball Prospectus presents the most advanced analytical view..." (p. 1). Or this: "PECOTA is already the best system of its kind" (p. 6). Both may be true. Both are throwaway sentences that should have been edited out, as they convey no information (other than that the author is inordinately proud) and waste paper and ink. BP is to baseball analysis what Ein Heldenleben was to symphony orchestra performances: bombast to the point of vulgarity critically marring elegant and deft work elsewhere.

The saving grace is the book is an ensemble production, and contains priceless essays like Gary Huckabay's "Where Does Statistical Analysis Fall Down? Reality and Perception" and "Iceberg Stories", maybe the best baseball-as-business analysis I've read in forever. There are thousands of clever , well-informed player comments. At 553 pages, there are enough nuggets to entertain for months.

Then there's figure 1, on page 510, the most pompous example of oversimplification imaginable. This figure presents a computer-science-like decision tree for a stolen base attempt, showing the three outcomes of the decision: no attempt, successful steal, and base stolen. Fine. Then Table 7 shows the breakeven percentage to 1/10th percent. My problem with this is the outcome tree for "attempt steal" is indistinguishable in the data from "try hit and run" (or "try run and hit"), and the number of outcomes is not three, it's dozens. The overwhelming majority of the time, an attempted steal involves a pitch delivered to a batter who may or may not swing. They ignore "catcher throws ball into center field", or "pitcher balks", or "batter fouls off pitch", or "batter lines into double play". A stolen base or a caught stealing, as data, is the precipitate in the bottom of the flask. The decision to run (or not) may be made by the manager, and is several events away from the actual recorded data column. These factors are difficult to divine, happen far more often than the percents place in the numbers would indicate, but ignoring them poisons the subsequent analysis fatally. Drawing the conclusion (as Keith Woolner does) that Tad Iguchi was the least opportune base stealer in MLB last year is like Sherlock Holmes solving cases from his monographs on tobacco ash -- fanciful, fun, and utter fiction. Printing three-digit breakeven numbers from this oversimplified decision tree leads to analysis paralysis and, rather than contributing to the knowledge base, just fuels the skepticism so elegantly detailed in the Huckabay essay's Woodwardian interview section. Drawing conclusions about player abilities from this noise is hubris worthy of Greek tragedy.

So buy the book, it's entertaining (and lacks the Kenny Williams character assassination this year), but don't take them at their words. It's hardly scholarly, as the peer review is a bunch of people interested in making money from the book, and the methods are usually held as proprietary data. Hold your nose through the self promotion, as hard as it is.

Pore over everything in my CV (11-5)

2006-04-23T10:07:00.000-05:00

Now having whipped the Twins mercilessly two nights in a row, the Pale Hose look to complete a sweep this afternoon, sending Jose Contreras against the suddenly scuffling Carlos Silva.

SuperNoVa is understandably worried about Freddy Garcia's start and critical of a Daily Herald article praising it. I'm in the middle. Yeah, Garcia gave up a few line-outs; but the Twins got just one real extra base hit off him (Hunter's home run) because Mauer's double was aided and abetted by Mackowiak's misjudgement. I think Garcia's "stuff" has been deteriorating for more than a year, and he is obviously transitioning to a finesse style. He is not different from the pitcher last fall throwing complete games in the ALCS, except his spring routine was more than a little disturbed by the World Silliness. His numbers are warped by pitching in the fifth inning of a cloudburst against the Blue Jays, a game where he couldn't grip the baseball as the umpires tried desperately to get to the rulebook official game definition. Garcia is open about all of this. His velocity looked up a bit from previous starts last night, and while he flirted with disaster a bit, scattering 5 singles, one walk, a lucky double, and a Torii Hunter homer through 6 1/3 is successful. I wouldn't be too worried yet.

Now, I am worried about Boone Logan, the title subject of this post. I'm not a big fan of the idea of letting Class A fringe prospects win major league jobs in spring training (Rule 5 tricks excepted). It almost never works. For every Kent Hrbek or Scott Radinsky, there are a lot of failures. Logan has pretty good stuff, I admit, but he looks like an A ball pitcher out there, spraying pitches all over the place. I know, I know, he's the back of the bullpen. But last night he singlehandedly started a very dangerous grass fire, one that ended up being about ten Torii Hunter feet from an Epic Collapse, because he just isn't ready for this. I know Kenny Williams would never do this with a position player. (Micah Schnurstein is not going to play in Chicago for a long, long time. ) Now, is there an alternative? Sure. Don't carry so bloody many pitchers. The White Sox do not need all these spare parts. At least they aren't mindlessly carrying twelve.

Other notes:

From the department of borderline trash statistics (or should it be trash data?) comes the "Jim Thome has scored in X consecutive games". This says as much about Konerko and Dye as it does about Thome -- somebody as slow as Jim Thome has scored 13 runs in addition to his home runs. Opponents have intentionally walked Thome six times already, and the approach has backfired on at least half of them.

The Indians have to be worried about Paul Byrd. This guy was expensive, supposed to replace the AL ERA champion, and gets by on the craft more than talent. So far he's had three awful Ruffcornesque starts in four tries. With Sabathia's durability and conditioning obviously questionable, the Indian pitching hardly looks contender-quality this morning, especially after getting toasted by the Orioles and Royals...

The Tigers are showing an uncharacteristic amount of fight so far. It's a good thing the White Sox handed them their heads or they'd be getting pretty cocky already.

The Eager Pack Lift Up Their Pitchers (6-5)

2006-04-15T16:36:00.000-05:00

Paul Konerko slammed two two-run homers and Mark Buerhle slammed the door on the Toronto Blue Jays to win a 4-2 pleasant afternoon game. This spoiled the debut of ridiculously overpaid Blue Jay mercenary A. J. Burnett.

Tomorrow is Freddy Garcia versus Josh Towers. Towers bothers me, a mediocrity who I always remember as bringing his A game against the White Sox.

Random notes on a random Saturday:

Tad Iguchi made one of the most unique defensive plays ever in this game, throwing out Bengie Molina on a chopper from a prone position in the ninth. The play looked more like one of those plays where someone suffers a sickening injury. The ESPNews reader had to get in a cheap statement about Molina running slow, you just know he wouldn't have said that if the play were made by, oh, Robinson Cano...

Tell me it's wrong to feel some Schadenfreude with Frank Thomas' sluggish start. Frank was easily myfavorite player ever, but seeing him in that Oakland outfit -- well, he's not the Big Hurt any more, he's some alien creature playing for the Green Evil. Yes, I know, a good season of two would cement his place in Cooperstown. And just as I write this, Frank Thomas slammed a Vincente Padilla cookie over the left-center-field wall to tie the game in Oakland, in the middle of a three-pitch, three-home-run barage. I want Frank to do well... but not too well...

There's been an incredible amount of baloney written this spring about Bobby Jenks. He lost his command. He lost ten miles per hour off his fastball. He's gained six hundred pounds. He's suspected in three unsolved criminal cases. He's the secret Grand Master of the Priory of Sion in the next Dan Brown novel. You name it, it's been written... well, almost. The truth is, he hasn't been really sharp, but he's been decently effective, and he's got a 5:1 K:W ratio, and four saves.

I didn't see any mention of it anywhere, but did anybody else notice that umpiring crews get rearranged? This means Bruce Froemming's crew from last year with Mark Winters, Jerry Meals, and Hunter Wendlestedt was partially broken up. Meals is now over with Mike Reilly and Hunter Wendlestedt is with Randy Marsh. That series in Oakland last year where the old Crew F (apropos) reamed the White Sox out of two games in a row may be repeated, but it will be different people.

As bad as we White Sox fans feel about Garland and Vazquez struggling, remember the shocking truth: they are the fourth and fifth starters. Buehrle's rounding into top form and Contreras has been solid.

I'm Not A Number (5-5)

2006-04-15T09:58:00.000-05:00

The White Sox survived Jon Garland's Thursday afternoon hammering but not Javier Vazquez' Friday night horror show and now have an even record of 5-5.

Ten games into the season the White Sox have gotten mostly frightening outings by their starting pitching, several frightening outings by the bullpen, and no offensive production from Brian Anderson or Scott Podsednik. Ordinarily, I'd be worried as hell about the import of all these dreadful numeric omens, puzzling over my vast collections of data, looking for the telltale numbers that somewhere, somehow, showed me that the poor performances were flukes. But I'm not.

Not because I'm not worried; I am. The White Sox look a lot more like the bash-and-pray 2003-2004 version than last year's magical mystery tour, and I don't think this is going to work at all. I don't think this team can out-bash the Indians, and the Twins look like they've struck gold with their newest crop of pitchers already. It's that my worrying has changed. I've lost the sabermetric religion.

I now realize that all those many years of poring over statistics was more about searching for a way to believe the White Sox would finally win than anything else. I was hoping that somewhere, buried in those numbers, would be a key, a clue that the final victory was coming, and the years of frustration and sorrow and, yes, ridicule were over. Somehow the numbers would tell me that the quest was concluding.

Last October, the White Sox found their Promised Land, and the numbers lied to us all year. They told us the team was 7 games worse than their record, that the team was lucky, that the team wasn't real. They lied. And now, as a result, I just find it hard to believe in them any more. So I let my subscription to Baseball Prospectus lapse. I didn't buy any statistical annuals. I am basking in the afterglow of what was, really, the Impossible Dream.

So Cliff Politte is getting hammered, and Vazquez is all out of sorts, and Garland looks worse than he's ever looked before. So what? Things will (probably) be fine. Who do you believe, me, or those lying spreadsheets?

Slammin' (4-4)

2006-04-12T18:22:00.000-05:00

Mr. Jim Thome v Frank Thomas so far:

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Jim Thome	8	26	9	9	2	0	5	8	8	2
Frank Thomas	7	25	4	2	1	0	1	4	4	6

I Just Wasn't Made For These Times (1-3)

2006-04-08T08:40:00.000-05:00

Jon Garland blew a six-run lead to the Kansas City Royals. Facing 27 hitters, he only managed to induce four groundouts, and on a blustery night with two subs starting in the outfield, the Royals took advantage of some outfielding miscues to score 9 runs off Garland and two more runs off Matt Thornton.

There' s a roster question here. The White Sox are carrying three utility infielders (Ozuna, Mackowiak, and Cintron) and three first basemen (Thome, Konerko, and Gload). This leaves them with one competent backup outfielder (Mackowiak can play anywhere). No, I'm not pining for Timo Perez, but I think he probably catches that wind-aided "double" that was the linchpin of the 5-run KC inning. Fortunately, not every game will be played in howling spring windstorms.

This makes three horrible starts out of four from the White Sox' central asset, the rotation. Should we be worried?

Not yet. I haven't done a systematic study, but because of DirecTV's free preview of their fan-crack called MLB Extra Innings, I've seen a lot of games so far, and a lot of good pitchers are getting hammered -- Barry Zito for one. As a convenient excuse, I'm going to blame the so-called World Baseball Classis, which fouled up spring training routines for virtually every team.

That said, so far, the White Sox have 2003 Angels written on their foreheads... time to grab the washcloths and the Lava.

Casual Conversations

2006-04-07T19:19:00.000-05:00

Over at Black Betsy, each game so far this season has been the subject of what's called an "ERV box score". Essentially, what SuperNoVa is doing is computing the net change in expected run value between two situations and crediting the batter with it. I'm sure he's published which matrix he's using. I had wondered about doing a similar thing every since I picked up a copy of The Hidden Game of Baseball by John Thorne and Pete Palmer two decades ago. Palmer developed the matrix as a basis for his linear weights method (LWTS). SuperNoVa actually did it.

(Aside: I didn't actually like Hidden Game, by the way; I didn't like the "I've got a secret and I'm willing to share it with you" tone of the book. Hidden Game reads like a college professor teaching a lecture hall of 500 students with a big VU-graph projector, absolutely certain that his information is infallible. The rival Bill James Baseball Abstracts of the time were like a seminar taught in a bar; you were with friends, and this guy James was always careful to explain how his formulas were created, and to assert that they were quite imperfect, but they were the best ones he had. The Palmer/Thorne book was off-putting where the James books were inviting. I have no idea who was "more accurate".)

I don't think the method is perfect, by the way. It has three obvious weaknesses, all related to lack of context, and all only pratically "corrected for" by assuming "all else is equal":

The batter is not the only factor in the outcome. Not only the pitcher is important; the fielders, ballpark, and umpires all can change the "expected" outcome of an at-bat. A two-out bases-loaded grounder in the hole that is incorrectly called "safe" on the throw to second would score as a +1.00 instead of the earned value, which is negative. (I'd say how negative but I can't locate my copy of Hidden Game.)
All situations don't have equal best-case or worst-case scenarios. A way to improve the method, I think, would assess both the change in expected value and the best and worst case scenarios possible for each situtation, and grade the outcome as a percentage, perhaps called "Net ERV efficiency". I don't think this is a substitute for the raw numbers, but as a separate metric it would be meaningful.
All situations don't have equal leverage. This is best solved with win probabilities, which other people have done.

So it's not perfect, but it is probably very useful. I think the Net ERV per plate apperance, the average Net ERV efficiency, and the Win Probability Score would make a very interesting (and inter-related) trio of numbers to go with the New Holy Trinity (AVG,OBP, and SLG).

As I wrote, I insist I did think of this idea twenty years ago; but I discarded it because I assumed somebody had already done it and discovered that it wasn't worth the extra work as it closely tracked the New Holy Trinity. Why? Because, over the course of a season, "All Else Is Equal". Now I'm wise enough to believe it's never been done (much) because it's been too much work, and twenty years ago, before STATS and Project Scoresheet/Retrosheet and the cornucopia on the Web, getting play-by-play data for most major league baseball games was impossible unless you got a scoresheet (or you kept it yourself).

What would be most interesting is if there were sustainable season-to-season correlations between (ERV/PA,NERV,WPS) that didn't track the New Holy Trinity, because it would mean that the idea of "productive outs" truly does have more merit than the majority "All Else Is Equal" crowd insists!

Working My Way Back To You (1-2)

2006-04-07T15:35:00.000-05:00

I didn't post a thing in spring training. The reason why is pretty simple: it's hard to get worked up about meaningless spring training games when your team won the World Series. But now they count again, and the opening shots are fired. And I'm roused by kind words from Super Nova at the always must-read Black Betsy. (I only wish I'd thought of his excellent Cato pun, Minnesota Twins delenda est first. If his link brought you here, welcome to my own little bit of White Sox insanity.)

The White Sox won a rain-soaked opener in a blowout, lost a blowout, then lost a hard-fought 1-run 11-inning game in their opening series. Having actually won a 1-run game against the White Sox, Indian fans are planning their postseason already. Some White Sox fans are already considering which brand of straight razor would be most effective.

Ozzie's being roasted in blog-effigy for using Boone Logan to face Travis Hafer with a one-run lead in the eighth in game 3. Hafner, of course, tagged a solo shot to tie the game. This ignores the obvious point that, in game 2, Logan had coaxed a GiDP from Hafner, and that Hafner's career stats against LHP are (.242/.353/.418). So, should Cotts have been in the game at that point? Well, maybe, but both pitchers had racked up 30 pitches in game 2, and Neil wasn't terribly effective when he did pitch. Sooner or later you have to let Logan face the Hafners of the world, or else you have to get somebody else to do it. Given that, I think Guillen's risk was worthwhile, especially since we are discussing the tying run, and not the go-ahead run, in a home game.
Konerko looks like he's carrying the weight of his offseason contract. He had two chances to win the game, in the ninth with the winning run at second and two outs, and in the eleventh with the tying run at first, and struck out both times. He went 1 for 13 despite facing mostly pitchers he's pounded (Cliff Lee, 7-for-21 with 2 homers; Westbrook, 13-for-35 with five extra base hits).
In general, you can't worry too much about losing 2 of 3 when you can see most of your players playing well below their norms. Konerko's not the only one sucking; Podsednik 0 for 13; Uribe, 1 for 9; Crede, 1 for 6. Considering that Thome, Pierzynski, and Iguchi ripped the cover off the ball, you can't say it was all Cleveland pitching. Several of the hitters were just out of synch.
Further, both Garcia and Buehrle were just awful. Both pitchers have very long track records, and certainly you expect them to turn it around.

The White Sox send Garland, Vazquez, and Buehrle against the Royals. I'm sure they aren't looking forward to it.

It Was A Very Good Year

2006-01-01T09:38:00.000-06:00

For Chicago White Sox fans, 2005 was a very good year. So we welcome 2006, the first year after the end of the Soxtober drought, with the most optimistic outlook we have had in... well, forever. It can happen for the White Sox, because it has.

Jon Garland parlayed his breakout season into three years and $29 million. This is probably less money than he could have gotten on the open market next off-season. The cynic in me says that it's more money than a fall-off season would have netted him, but I'm not sure that's true; the contracts given to Kris Benson and Eric Milton last year weren't tempered enough by the pitchers' mediocre performances. If the White Sox are going to act like major-market team (and if their customer base expands as much as hoped), this is the kind of deal they have to make when given the opportunity. Will Garland be overpaid? Sure, but almost all veterans are comparatively overpaid because the System makes sure they are, because anyone with less than three years of service is automatically a relative bargain.

With Garland in the fold, the White Sox' surplus of starting pitching is drawing much media and fan speculation (and, of course, blog speculation, which is partly both). Trades are rumored in the mass media with the Orioles for Miguel Tejada, with the Dodgers and Angels back before Garland's re-up, and now the latest, with the Astros for burner CF Willy Taveras and even Soxtober goat Brad Lidge.

Willie Harris is now a Rockie, non-tendered and made completely expendable by the Marte-for-Mackowiak trade. Willie is that close to being a good baseball player; unfortunately, that is being able to drive the ball out of the infield consistently. If he ever learns to turn on a mistake and double down the line, he'll have a decent career as a pesky number two hitter type, because he'll start drawing more walks if the pitchers have to worry about something more than in infield single here and there.

Happy New Year.

Panoramic

2005-12-23T09:44:00.000-06:00

One last time, we lifelong White Sox fans pause to remember that the 2005 Chicago White Sox are now immortal, like Da Bears and Jordan's six teams. Barring another miracle, Mark, Freddy, Jon, Jose, Orlando, Bobby, Dustin, Cliff, Neil, Damaso, Luis, AJ, Chris, Paul, Tadahito, Juan, Joe, Pablo, Willie, Scott, Aaron, Jermaine, Carl, Frank, Timo, Geoff, and Ross, you'll all be remembered as long as there is baseball in Bridgeport.

Goodbye, Orlando, Damaso, Luis, Aaron, and Geoff, you're gone now, on to new teams as part of the annual retooling. Adios also to Timo and Willie, victims of the windshield of salary escalation and their own performance. Farewell (probably) to Frank Thomas, the brightest star in a century-plus of ChiSox baseball.

Hellos to Javier, Rob, and Jim, and also to Brandon and Brian (although we've met quite a bit before), the reinforcements brought in.

Here's hoping you, too, can become part of the new panorama.

Javier Self a Merry Little Christmas

2005-12-17T10:22:00.000-06:00

Item: White Sox reportedly trade El Duque, Luis Vizcaino, and Chris Young for Javier Vazquez and a lot of cash. This deal is still unannounced last I checked due to physical exams and, possibly, MLB needing to approve the cash part. (When is the last time the commissioner didn't?)

Javier Vazquez displaces El Duque and Brandon McCarthy as the supposed fifth starter in the rotation, at least for now. The deal placed a lot of pressure on Jose Contreras and Jon Garland to come to terms on an extension, keeping the pitching staff together. At last report, Contreras is the most likely to cave first. When the music stops, whoever doesn't sit in Chair Number Five gets traded, and not necessarily to a favorable ballpark (How about Tampa Bay, Jon? Or Texas more your style?)

Vazquez, obviously, is the ex-Expo phenom who suffered an epic collapse in 2004 in the second half of the season as a Yankee and then turned in a pedestrian effort in 2005 for the D-Backs. The question for Vazquez is how much of his performance suffered from the combination of substandard defensive teams and uninspired coaching. Those won't be problems with the White Sox. His propensity for giving up fly balls in worrisome in the Cell, of course. But he is certainly an upgrade over El Duque in what's-left ability and in health status, and while overpaid, as a back of the rotation starter he's a very good pitcher.

Vizcaino and El Duque were roster filler at this point in their careers for the White Sox. Vizcaino's role was essentially mop-up relief, and El Duque's healthy history means he can't be projected to put up 200 innings ever again. Certainly El Duque served an important role in the 2005 team, but you can't get all sentimental and assume he'd do it again.

Giving up Chris Young may turn out to be prohibitively expensive. "May". Young turned in a monster power season as a youngster at Birmingham, a park which kills home run hitters. His 26 homers probably repesent about 25% fewer than he'd have hit if the Barons played in a neutral ballpark. One problem for Young was contact -- he strikes out a lot -- and maybe the White Sox have become a little gunshy since the Borchard experiment, but still, a five-tool outfielder with that kind of pop could turn out to be a real find. If Young shows he can hit for average and play center field, the White Sox may regret the trade. If he ends up a .260-hitting corner outfielder with power and 60 walks a year (Carlos Lee), they won't, really. You can't compare Young to Jeremy Reed statistically because they are so different, but I remember the gnashing of teeth over Reed's being traded for Garcia, which resembled the gnashing over Young last week. I doubt any White Sox fans regret that deal now after Garcia's duel with Backe in the championship clincher; if they do, well, I suggest they should re-examine what they think is important in a baseball season.

Further, if the White Sox use the little auction they're having to lock in Contreras and if he can maintain his improvment, and if they can flip Garland's incredible season into a star position player like Blalock or Tejada or a handful of high-level prospects, the White Sox may never miss Young.

If they don't, another possibility is this gives the White Sox more than an excuse to put McCarthy in the Charlotte pantry long enough to set his career money clock back one more year and a five-deep rotation that could be among the most feared in baseball history. That alone may be the key to the deal, in the long run.

Crystal Ball

2005-12-10T10:39:00.000-06:00

The White Sox 2006 roster should be capable of defending the division title, although the division will be tougher than its was. The long term prognosis is really ugly, I think. Because of idiotic teams like the Mets and Blue Jays raising the going rate for pitching mediocrity to almost ten million dollars and, by inference, skyrocketing the price of quality pitching, the White Sox' rotation will simply be too expensive to keep together beyond 2006-7.
Kenny's core strategy, assembling dominant starting pitchers at relative bargain prices, is not sustainable.

Black Betsy will want to point out that trading pitching prospects by the basket doesn't help this situation, and he's partially right; the problem (and you can ask any Texas Ranger fan to confirm this) is that from 10 Gios and Haigwoods, you have an even chance of getting one Freddy Garcia, and you need a handful to play the 2005 White Sox' game.

As for the rest of the division, the Indians' offseason depends on Millwood, I think, as they've struck out badly in everything since the Byrd signing. I don't see that they've gotten either better or worse. In any case, the Indians are basically as good as the White Sox, although if they'd just fix their corner positions they'd dominate. The problem is, as smart as Shapiro is, he has a blind spot, and doesn't get that Aaron Boone is a terrible ballplayer.

When I first saw that the Twins got Castillo, I shuddered. Castillo is a massive upgrade over everybody the Twinks have played at second for years, probably since Knoblauch. They are working on their third base hole, and probably plan to replace Jones with the gimpy guy (Kubel?), and allegedly are looking for one of the old broken down guys (Thomas, Piazza) to replace Matt LeCroy at DH. (How did HE get through waivers?) There is, though, a case for believing that Castillo will decline sharply in Minnesota, that being that he's basically an infield singles hitter, and that the FieldTurf may turn a lot of his slow rollers into outs. I'm not holding my breath.

The Tigers continue their steady march toward mediocrity, and have reached the point they can be a real pain in the neck to the contending teams, but not the point they can contend. Polanco and Shelton and Bonderman are good players, but the team is weighed down by several ridiculous has-beens with gigantic contracts. They continued to add to their collection of misfit toys with Kenny "Assault and Battery" Rogers.

I revel in the Royals' badness, their continuing penance (in my book) for their decade dominating the old A.L. West partly through the cheap trick of an unplayable ballfield that confused and disoriented visiting teams and gave them dozens of cheap victories over visitors that would have crushed them on grass. (Don't believe me? Check out the Royal record in the first games of home series from 1975-1990..)

Kings of the Mountain

2005-12-10T09:55:00.000-06:00

A quick roster analysis for the 2006 defending World Series champions... A few NRIs to be named later could upset the applecart a bit, especially at the back end of the bullpen.

Positions

Locks (11): Paul Konerko, Tadahito Iguchi, Juan Uribe, Joe Crede, Scott Podsednik, Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, A. J. Pierzynski, Chris Widger, Rob Mackowiak, Pablo Ozuna
Likely (1): Brian Anderson
Questionable (4): Timo Perez, Willie Harris, Joe Borchard, Ross Gload
Possible (3): Chris Young, Jerry Owens, Chris Stewart
Long Shots (2): Casey Rogowski, Pedro Lopez

As everybody points out, we don't know how many pitchers they'll carry, probably 12 as a baseline, which squeezes out Willie Harris and, probably, Timo Perez. The "questionable" list doesn't include anybody with minor-league options left. One advantage to carrying a Jerry Owens on the roster is he can be optioned regularly as part of the pitching load balancing act.

On paper, the offense has returned to the level it was at in 2004.

Pitching

Locks (8): Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, Neal Cotts, Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, Dustin Hermanson, Bobby Jenks, Cliff Politte,
Likely (3): Orlando Hernandez, Brandon McCarthy, Luis Vizcaino
Possible (3): Jon Adkins, Jeff Bajenaru, Arnie Munoz
Long Shots (4): Felix Diaz, Charlie Haeger, Paulino Reynoso, Sean Tracey

The likelies here are all pending possible trades.

Anywhere

2005-12-10T09:31:00.000-06:00

Near the end of the winter meetings, the White Sox traded Damaso Marte back to the Pirates for lefthanded-hitting supersub Rob Mackowiak. A good deal, as long as the White Sox aren't forced to over-use Mackowiak.

Marte had worn out his welcome over the last two years, both with marginal pitching (all those walks) and, reportedly, off-the-field hissy fits. As a second lefthanded reliever (I hesistate to use the words "setup man" with the White Sox, whose bullpen use is more creative than that), Marte was likely to see 40-60 innings again, making him a brutally expensive player. Trading him back to the organization the White Sox obtained him from brought an interesting, unique player.

Mackowiak is nominally a third baseman, but has seen 232 games in right, 167 at third, 110 in center, 59 at second, 46 in left, and even 5 at first base. His defensive statistics look below-average but acceptable in center and at second, and average at the other positions. This makes him acceptably versatile (being suitable for six positions in the lineup), and therefore one heck of a bench player.

As a hitter, he's also one heck of a bench player, and could fill in as an interim regular without crippling the team, but he's basically a lefthanded Joe Crede. This makes him an upgrade in terms of both versatility and effectiveness over the past Sox bench players, and provides effective insurance that the White Sox lacked in 2005.

One comment often made about the 2005 Series champs was how lucky they'd been, but the real luck was that the serious injuries they did suffer to key players (Frank Thomas, El Duque) were covered adequately in places the team had some depth. Injuries to Podsednik and Crede, neither offensive dynamos, weren't adequately covered, contributing to the late-August, early-September doldrums, because the 2005 bench simply wasn't all that hot. The 2006 bench is already looking better, as Mackowiak is a better ballplayer than any of the 2005 crew.

Tomorrow Never Knows

2005-12-08T07:42:00.000-06:00

Frank Thomas was refused arbitration yesterday, almost certaining ending his long White Sox career. Predicatably, as it always happens with older athletes who refuse to quit, Frank is angry, bitter, and resentful. Always optimistic, Frank expects to be healthy next year and contribute significantly -- like he did ten years ago, when he wasn't 38 years old.

I think the truth is Frank thinks he needs 500 homers to lock in his Hall Of Fame credentials. Because of the twin negatives of DH-ness and an injury-riddled last half of his career, many observers feel that Frank falls just short of a Hall of Fame career. I suspect Frank believes that and is still looking for some more counting numbers.

The problem is, if he puts up some mediocre numbers, he'll damage people's memories, and be remembered by the HOF voters as an old, slow slugger. I think he'd do better to hang them up, and spend the next five years quietly reminding the world how he wasn't chemically assisted during his tenure, and should be judged that way, being the elder statesman he has earned the right to be.

It's always disappointing when a premier athlete overstays his time, like a great actor taking a bit part on a TV show. Or think of the train wreck that was Life With Lucy (Lucille Ball) trying to recapture that magic from the 1950s. That's what I think of a 38-year-old Frank Thomas bouncing around the hotel selling himself as healthy and ready to contribute. Sure, it's possible he'll put up some nice numbers and be healthy for a full year. It's also possible he'll get elected the next Nevada senator. Just don't bet on either.

If Frank doesn't want to become part of the Minnie Minoso post-retirement PR machine for the White Sox quite yet, and somebody wants to pay him several million bucks not to, I'm fine with that. But let's be realistic, the odds are, he'll break something else and that will be that.

Thome, can you hear me?

2005-11-23T19:39:00.000-06:00

The White Sox today traded Aaron Rowand and two minor leaguers to the Phillies for Jim Thome and enough money to re-stock Fort Knox. The two minor leaguers are apparently Gio Gonzalez and Daniel Haigwood, who are lefthanded pitchers and top-ten prospects. What this means for the Konerko re-signing effort, I don't know; rumor has it the Orioles have entered the bidding with a really stupid gesture.

Internet analysts have mostly gone ballistic on the Thome trade. They quite properly focus on Thome's health history, and also on the insanity of parting with two highly regarded prospects.

On the last one, well, give me a break.

In acquiring Freddy Garcia, Carl Everett, Royce Clayton, Bartolo Colon, and Roberto Alomar, the White Sox parted with:

Jeremy Reed, who started in center for the Mariners last year and played poorly,
Miguel Olivo, who played his way off the Mariners and is now in San Diego,
Michael Morse, who was busted for steroids and is a marginal player with Seattle,
Frank Francisco, who threw a chair at a fan in Oakland, narrowly avoided prosecution, and is currently rehabbing an injury that cost him a season
Josh Rupe, who is a borderline middle relief prospect with the Rangers,
Anthony Webster, who can't get out of A ball
Gary Majewski, a decent setup pitcher with Washington
Jon Rauch, who can't stay healthy with Washington
Edwin Almonte, who spilled his cup of coffee and is back in AA ball
Royce Ring, who is a marginal reliever with the Mets,
Andrew Salvo, who is in the independent leagues now,
Brad Murray, who is out of baseball,
Rocky Biddle, who didn't pitch last year, and
Jeff Liefer, who got stuck in a bathroom in AAA ball.

Is it just me, or was this outflux of "talent" considered a disaster for each and every trade?

Why is it that we should believe that Gio Gonzalez and Daniel Haigwood will come back to haunt Kenny?

Sounds of Silence

2005-11-19T09:59:00.000-06:00

While there has been some player movement in the past week, very little of it has been all that interesting. The big questions for the White Sox are no more answered than they were at the start of the month.

Comings (and stayings):

Chris Widge has been resigned, and so has Pablo Ozuna, to modest contracts, to reprise their bit player roles.
Chris Stewart effectively replaces Raul Casanova and Jamie Burke (now with the Rangers system) as the third string catcher option. Stewart was added to the 40-man roster.
OF Chris Young was added to the roster. Young is fresh off a good AA campaign. He seems to be fast, have prodigious power,walks a lot, but does strike out a lot and "only" hit .277.
Charles Haeger was added to the roster. Young pitcher with a knuckleball. Don't hold your breath waiting for him.
Daniel Haigwood was added to the roster. Young power pitcher with Brandon McCarthy like number so far.
Jerry Owens was added to the roster. Owens is a speed-oriented project player. Get on base, no power, gets caught stealing a lot.

Goings:

Geoff Blum has taken a modest contract offer from the Padres to go home to southern California. Blum obviously will be remembered by White Sox fans for his miraculous Tito-F-Landrum-esque solo homer in the 14th inning of Game Three, but, beyond that, he did little last year except provide insurance against Joe Crede's finger injury becoming a crisis.
Carl Everett was bought out and is definitely gone.
Kevin Walker is mercifully gone.

Wait and sees:

Paul Konerko hasn't signed anywhere. The news is pretty dead, which makes me think his agent isn't seeing the offers he expected. The White Sox have left one spot on the 40-man roster open, which is presumably a slot for Paulie if he resigns before the Rule 5 draft.
Frank Thomas the free agent is rehabbing. There is no telling what happens with him.

Non-events:

The White Sox avoided a trap when the Cubs inexplicable overpaid Scott Eyre to be their LOOGY. Three years, $11MM? What?

Elvis are you out there somewhere, looking like a happy man?

2005-11-13T12:57:00.000-06:00

The key offseason questions for the White Sox seem to be:

Obviously, what happens to Paul Konerko. Right now it seems to me (and I could be wrong) that the market for Konerko isn't what it was cracked up to be.
Where will the payroll end up? Ticket price increases and better buzz would have seemed to pre-figure a rise, and Reinsdorf said payroll would go up... but rumors say a starting pitcher is on the block.
Who will be the DH? Carl didn't really get it done, and there are plenty of possibilities... but what will happen? I think I might be able to predict what the White Sox will do, but the rest of baseball is populated by people with strange ideas.
Can Bobby Jenks stay healthy for an entire season? What do they have there?

Obviously, the key question is who will be in the 3-4 spots in the order, and will getting him (them) involve breaking up the Big Four?

The wind is whistling... the wind is whistling through the house.

At the One Lane Bridge...

2005-11-12T09:57:00.000-06:00

So today the papers say that Paul Konerko's agent didn't actually get an offer from the White Sox during their "exclusive negotiating window", and that they prefer to let him collect offers from other teams first. The 4/54 offer much bandied about was fiction. Konerko's agent says that's just the way the White Sox prefer to do it.

Yesterday the Orange County newspaper said that the Angels would offer Konerko "at least four seasons and something more than $40 million", but that the Angels tend "not to deviate much from [the] initial offer". Konerko's agent said publicly that it would be in the Angels' "best interest to make a serious offer right away".

What this looks like is that the market is starting to wake up and back away from Paul Konerko. While Paulie was undeniably a great contributor to the 2005 White Sox, his career numbers and reputation do not say "superstar":

He hits a lot of home runs, yes, but his lifetime road numbers (.266/.333/.448) suggest strongly that he is in great part a creature of The Cell. His 774 OPS in Anaheim has to be a real burr for Stoneman's saddle.
While he is an adequate defender, he's just that -- an adequate first baseman. Those aren't really in short supply.
He's only two seasons removed from a disastrous, multi-month slump.
Baseball is suffering from a huge epidemic of hangovers from ill-advised contracts to, well, first baseman/DH types.

Perhaps Kenny Williams is being more shrewd than any of us suspect. Let Konerko test the market. He may find it more tepid than he thinks -- or his agent or the press think, for that matter. He may find out that the White Sox at 4/45 are the class of the field. It be better to have loved and lost than to never have loved at all, but in Chicago, Paul Konerko will be a hero. If the White Sox are the high bidders, he will be a happy, but wiser, one.

Angels, you don't want to go, down to Konerko

2005-11-06T14:25:00.000-06:00

Speculation seems to have settled on Angels, Red Sox, D-Backs, and Mets as possible suitors for Paul Konerko.

For the Angels, all I can ask is, "Why?"

I somehow don't think the Angels' interest is genuine. I wonder if they are asking pro forma because they would like to drive up the White Sox' price out of pure spite over recent events.

Look at it this way... The Angels have lots of talent available to play 1B/DH over the next four of five years and not all of it has to succeed for them to be overstaffed. (That, and California's personal income tax is, what, seven percent higher than Illinois? That's worth three million there.) Casey Kotchman comes to mind, a good-to-great young lefthanded hitter. Baseball Prospectus forecasted Kotchman before the year with a WARP from 3.9 to 5.3 over the next few years, solidly better than Konerko.

Over the last few years, the Angels spent money on Guerrero, Colon, and Cabrera to fill holes in their roster they couldn't fill from within. When they felt that third baseman Dallas McPherson was ready, they let Glaus walk. By any reasonable estimation, 1B/DH isn't really a hole for them, not in the long term.

The Angels have the money to do almost anything, no matter how stupid, but they don't strike me as inclined to pay Paul Konerko as much or more than they are paying Vladimir Guerrero.

Mike Piazza is out there looking for a DH job, remember, and the Angels still have that Dodger inferiority complex to service, and Piazza's ability to be an emergency catcher (and his SoCal connection to that blue team) would be a plus for the Angels.

I think their interest isn't sincere. It doesn't make a lot of sense -- unless the idea is to keep Kenny busy, that is.

Champions: Sympathy for the Beancounters

2005-10-30T14:05:00.000-06:00

Why the statheads (and I) got it wrong comes down to two mistakes:

1) I misread the Go-Go PR as grand strategy, and missed the real point, like almost everybody else;

2) There is a difference between players like (say) AJ Pierzynski and players like Ben Davis, not just in their own performances, but in what they expect from and coax out of others

The Strategy

Conventional stathead analyses of baseball start with the assumption that wins and losses are directly a result of runs scored and allowed, following several formulas, the best known of which is Bill James’ Pythagorean formula.

My pet theory is that the obsession with grand totals and consequent averages (whether they be Equivalent or On Base) loses the key concept of standard deviation.

I believe the White Sox quite intentionally built a team with a relatively lower game-to-game deviation of runs scored and an intentionally wider deviation of runs allowed. Kenny was very public about this. I don't know that anybody ever really set out to do this (although the Twins stumbled into it for a couple of years), but I am pretty sure Kenny Williams is very aware of what he did, and I think it may be a surefire way to beat “Pythagoreas” because it invalidates the precept that runs are randomly distributed along the normal curve. The risk is you won’t score enough runs to win any games, a risk the White Sox flirted with in September but only then.

To understand my hypothesis, you have to realize that most pitchers with a 4.50 ERA don't allow 3 runs every 6 innings. They usually allow 1 or 2, punctuated by a 4 here and a 7 there, but not nearly as often. We see this happen all the time with rookie soft tossers for the other team and wonder why Joe Blow from Cuba Mo can shut the White Sox down. It's because that is in fact a pretty normal pattern. My hypothesis is you actually WANT pitchers who blow up once a month (we’ll call him Freddy Mercury) but otherwise dominate instead of one who is consistent (we’ll call him Steady Eddie Average), because the first class of pitcher will actually win more often despite having identical total and average statistics. Guys who blow up once a month are easier to find than guys who consistently put up mediocre numbers because most baseball teams are actually LOOKING for the pitcher who is consistently average and get frustrated with the Mercury types.

This grand strategy won't work if you bring in five relief pitchers a game, because you increase the probability than one of the middle guys will end up blowing the game, but it does work if your starters usually go 7. It only works for STARTING pitchers, who control the outcome of any given game more often than not.

Here's the thing -- this strategy works by leveraging guys who are undervalued by the market, a la Moneyball. It won't ever show up in computerized simulations because they all use a Monte Carlo model for pitching performance -- random numbers -- which assumes that a player is some permutation of his stat-generating-robot counterpart in cyberspace. He's not; he's a human being operating more or less at the edge of an infinitely sheer precipice of failure.

Baseball as viewed by Baseball Prospectus and the East Coast, is a war of attrition, like World War I, fought by artillery duels between huge sluggers driving in baserunners who often walked. The White Sox played a game more akin to precision air strikes and infiltration ground tactics. (Their latest book, Mind Game, does include a paragraph pointing out that Pythagoreas may be an oversimplification.)

We statheads missed because we didn’t understand that Kenny was looking to exploit one of the quirks of the game – that runs don’t carry over, that losing by a lot is no different than losing by a little. We confused what he was advocating with true, 1960s small ball, and because sabermetric orthodoxy tells us that this is a poor decision, we bought it. He couched it in go-go smallball terms as a PR move. Most White Sox fans believe in the holy trinity of pitching, speed, and defense. They let us project that onto what they were doing.

The Players

Last November 10th, I wrote an email to the WHITESOX mailing list bewailing the White Sox offseason strategy. What they were doing, it seemed to me, was insane. As it turned out, what they were ended up doing was the opposite of what I feared, while they hit the nail on the head for every single one of my “imaginings”.

First, to be fair, Kenny didn’t do all of it intentionally. He was saved from himself by the Giants adding a third season to Omar Vizquel’s offer. He was saved from himself by the Red Sox and other teams bidding up mediocre pitchers and ignoring the brittle but still cagey El Duque. He benefited from the Angels’ giving up on Bobby Jenks. He benefited from the Giants’ second mistake, releasing A. J. Pierzynski without a really good reason.

In early November, the White Sox had Ben Davis catching, no right fielder except perhaps Alex Escobar, no second baseman, no fifth starter, questionable 3 and 4 starters, and a bullpen with several very iffy characters. So what happened?

They dumped Carlos Lee for bullpen depth and official stathead dart board Scott Podsednik. I really thought at the time this was about freeing up money (which it was) and ridding the team of a problem personality (it was). It also gave the White Sox dual centerfielders, at the expense of some big-bang offense, and improved what I can only call the presence-of-mind on the field. Carlos was widely believed to be a stathound, the biggest one on the team.

After the Giants’ aforementioned brain freeze, they signed Jermaine Dye to fill the right field hole and Dustin Hermanson as an insurance policy for two spots. Dye was a risk given his injury history but not a terrific one. Hermanson was a career mediocrity, but one with the big-inning quirk I mentioned before. Then came Pierzynski, El Duque, and most shockingly, Tadahito Iguchi. What happened was a methodical upgrade of every major hole in the roster to at least an adequate player and, in almost every case, a good one.

They had clearly improved the defense without crippling the offense.

But it wasn't just that. It was also the fact that, with no exceptions, they added red asses. Of the additions, Dye was the closest thing to laid back. The rest of them wanted, more than anything else, to win. The image of 2005 is A. J. Pierzynski, by hook or by crook, getting 100% out of every situation. And, while character can't cover up a lack of talent, it can definitely get the most out of talent.

WS +3: The Best Of Times...

2005-10-26T19:00:00.000-05:00

I admit I didn't stay up to see it, and I also admit saying an Aaron-Rowand-like "no way! No Way! NO WAY!" when checking the score this morning...

No way!

WS +1: The Miseducation of Joe Sheehan

2005-10-23T10:49:00.000-05:00

Instead of over-analyzing last night's game, instead I want to ask the question: How did the analysts, specifically Baseball Prospectus (BP), get the White Sox so wrong this year? Now, they have an answer, "luck", but that just doesn't wash given the incredible gap between what they said in their book this year and what actually happened. I think I have the answer, but explaining it takes some background.

First, you have to understand the history of sabermetrics a little bit. Sabermetrics is a term coined by Bill James to encompass the whole idea of studying questions about baseball using statistics. James didn't invent the concept, it's as old as baseball and Henry Chadwick keeping score in the 19th century. Many systems have been proposed over the years, from Earnshaw Cook's DX to Tom Boswell's Total Average to Pete Palmer's Linear Weights (LWTS) to Bill James' many metrics to BP's collection of formulas.

With that said, here's why BP screwed up:

Attitude. Bill James wrote books that were essentially academic papers. He would pose the question, describe the framework used to address the question in full (including formulas), attempt to answer the question, and then open the floor (conceptually) to objections and review. BP doesn't do this, really; their formulas are largely proprietary (because they make money selling information to many sources), and they don't really brook review of their methods or conclusions. BP's attitude is more Papal than academic, an attitude which leads to error through the age-old idea of hubris. The White Sox don't fit BP's concept of how to run a baseball team, so they must be bad. When their own formulas showed a better outcome than their guts, they went with their guts. When their formulas emitted transparently bizarre predictions, they stuck by their formulas, as long as they fit their assumptions.

Appearance of Conflict of Interest. Further, because the White Sox don't fit their concept (and presumably don't buy their private analysis products), they trashed them in public, which is analogous to the brokerage scandals of a few years back (but, admittedly, however, not harmful to the public in any way). The teams BP singles out for praise are, predictably, the teams that employ their authors and friends. As BP is largely a Chicago-born institution and the Chicago teams ignore them could be a cause for simple spite. Further, obviously success by any organization that doesn't follow the basic BP program could be perceived by the public as undermining the credibility of their otherwise entertaining and shrewd product.

Methodology. Plainly put, much of BP's work derives from Pete Palmer's work, and Palmer's methodology was, I believe, flawed by the basic, mistaken assumption that baseball is close enough to a linear process to be analyzed as such. James noticed early that baseball isn't linear, his formulas aren't linear, and his results were better. BP drank the Total Baseball Kool-Aid -- or we think they did; we'll never know because they don't really let us see their process. One example is the focus on replacement players, who are essentially strawmen; the goal is not to collect players better that AAA players, the goal is to win as often as possible.

Observability. Baseball has dozens of individual statistics that are collected at every level, and analyzed and over-analyzed. It also has dozens of events that happen on the field every game that go unrecorded because there's no statistic to cover them. It has no realistic way to distinguish intent. When a batter grounds to second to advance a runner to third base, no statistic is really kept, and if one were, no framework exists to evaluate it. BP's approach to this problem is age-ol, assuming that if we can't measure it, it must all even out in the end.

So, because they couldn't understand the Carlos Lee trade in their analytical framework, and couldn't account for the possibility that Jose Contreras' failures in Yankee Stadium not being correctable, and so on and so forth, BP allocated 82-odd wins to the White Sox, and Joe Sheehan predicted a 90-loss season for a team that has now won 107 games and counting and has a tenuous one-game lead in the World Series. When confronted time and time again with the fact that something went wrong in the system to make that grade of mistake, the responses amount to: (1) they were lucky, (2) they were lucky, (3) their luck will run out, and (4) they are really lucky. That excuse made the grade in May, BP, but now we're in late October and you need better ones.

The real answer is you can't predict run prevention because your defensive/fielding analysis is just as bad as everyone else's. For a business that makes money based on the promise that they can predict the future, that is what you call a severe downward indicator.

World Series break: Pinch me!

2005-10-18T20:47:00.000-05:00

We still don't know which team will face the White Sox in the Series, but we do know one thing: writers and analysts will mess up the comparison because they constantly forget that ERAs aren't comparable between the two leagues. An ERA in St. Louis of 3.60 is about the same as an ERA of 4.00 for an American League starter, and a Houston ERA of 3.50 is about the same as a 4.00 for a Chicago starter. The principal reasons for this all relate to the use of the DH, both in weakening the opposition starter and getting NL pitchers out of the game before they are completely gassed. The Astro and Cardinal pitching staffs are good, but their real numbers are significantly below the White Sox numbers.

ALCS 3-1: In the a[la]rms of the Angels...

2005-10-16T12:20:00.000-05:00

How many Angels can dance around like pinheads?

The Angels and some of their fans, as well as the Fox rally monkeys, would like you to believe that the only reason the Angels are the ones down 3-1 is blown calls by the umpires.

The fact is, though, that there's an element of old-fashion boneheadedness at work.

Consider the Finley double play last night. Here are the facts: the Angels had runners on first and third with one out. Steve Finley's bat hit A. J. Pierzynski's mitt during his swing, which the umpires did not notice, and Finley hit a grounder to Iguchi. Finley spent part of the time he was running to first half-turned to the home plate umpire pleading his case.

From the time that Finley hit the ball, there were three reasonable outcomes possible:

The umpire could have called catcher interference, sending the runner on third back and loading the bases with out for Adam Kennedy in a 3-1 game. The expected number of runs from this scenario is 1.52, with 0 being possible.
Finley could have run full-speed to first base, certainly beating Uribe's relay, while a run scored from third base, leaving a runner on first with two out and a run scored to make it 3-2. The expected number of runs from this scenario is 1.24, with the 1 being certain.
Finley could do what he did, inning over, no runs scored.

Finley arguing the call before the play completed was plain-and-simple stupid. His beating out the throw to first base was only somewhat less advantageous to the Angels in the big ball sense than the catcher interference call, and in the small ball sense (which is how the Angels play) it was probably dead even. Angel paranoia about the umpiring cost them one sure run. The call itself may have cost them more runs, but maybe not, given that Garcia struck out both Adam Kennedy and Chone Figgins in their next at bats.

Then there were the two calls on the bases on Podsednik, which were both close and amounted to one insurance run.

The Fox-fueled controversy in Game Two has an equally simple three-plausible-outcomes scenario:

Pierzynski could have been called out on a clean catch. Despite Tim McCarver's incessant repetition, the "fact" that Jose Paul caught the strike on the fly was not conclusively established by the replay.
Paul could have tagged Pierzynski, who stood there for an instant, ending the inning.
Pierzynski gets first on the error.

Once Pierzynski was on first and the pinch runner Pablo Ozuna was in place, there was no law of physics guaranteeing that Ozuna would steal second; that happened because Escobar did a poor job of holding the runner and Josh Paul didn't try a throw. There was no guarantee that Crede would hit a two-strike double to left field off a hanging breaking ball. There certainly was no guarantee that the Angels would score in the tenth or any other inning, given that they are scoring two runs a game in the series. The was no guarantee that the back end of the Angel bullpen would stop Chicago from scoring in the bottom of the tenth inning. Game Two boiled down to Scioscia's decision to use his regular catcher as a DH to stack the lineup with righthanded batters causing him to play his third-string catcher.

The Angels and Fox want you to believe that they haven't gotten a call in the series, which is not true, and I don't just mean the Iguchi neighborhood play last night. In Game One, the Angels got a huge break when the second-base umpire failed to call Orlando Cabrera out for interference on his rolling block on a DP. This caused Iguchi to throw the relay over Konerko's head and allowed the third run in a 3-2 game to score. The got a break in Game Two when much-vilified plate umpire Doug Eddings over-eagerly punched out Paul Konerko on a checked swing in the sixth with nobody out against Scot Sheilds and a 3-2 pitch without asking the first base umpire for help; replays showed (much more conclusively than in the Paul pitch) that he did not go around. The next batter, Carl Everett, was called out on a very low pitch. A runner on first with nobody out is a much more dangerous situation than with two out, and other than pointing out that the call was blown, Fox didn't play that up.

Personally, I hope the Angels keep it up. It means they think they've lost.

ALCS entrants: Wildest Dreams

2005-10-09T12:50:00.000-05:00

It's been a long time since I rock 'n' rolled... writer's block.

All I can say now is, it's just gravy.

74-45: Cut the kids in half

2005-08-20T14:10:00.000-05:00

A lot of people don’t understand it, but I think Thomas breaking his foot again was a terrible blow to the team, you know they haven’t been the same since. The GM and manager don’t get it, but if you read the quotes from the players, they definitely were playing April and May with abandon and the feeling that Frank would be back and help finish the job, and since his re-injury, the team has played a lot like the demoralized way they did last year after Magglio and Frank got hurt. Now with him gone and the inevitable nagging injuries, the ridiculous bench consisting of Pablo Ozuna, T.I.M.O., Geoff Blum, and Chris Widger is exposed, unable to contribute any meaningful offense, and the team sinks under the collective bilge they’ve accumulated.

The good news is books will be written about this season. The bad news is they will be gothic horror novels.

67-35: Let me introduce you to the end

2005-07-30T20:58:00.000-05:00

Between vacation, business travel, and a general lack of belief that anyone will ever read this, the Razor has lacked any motivation to blog... until now, with the end game in sight.

Frank Thomas is done for the year and probably for his White Sox career after suffering yet another fracture of a bone in his left foot. This time, allegedly, it's the navicular, the same little bone that nags as Alex Escobar's career. It's too early to write the eulogy for his career, but let me say he was the best righthanded hitter of the 1990s, a clear Hall of Fame ballplayer, but he will probably have to sweat out his induction because of his lackluster defense at first and the permanent damage done to his career and reputation by his injuries, the relationship with former Sox manager Jerry Manuel, and the interplay between the two.

The White Sox have taken the first two from the Orioles after that shocking news about Frank Thomas. El Duque pitched well, and the bullpen's been great, but the White Sox are definitely a Big Ball team right now, having put up 7 and 9 runs on the slumping Oriole pitching staff.

The long slog 'til October has begun. I have to admit it is enormously entertaining to listen to the Minnesota Twins radio broadcasts as they fall further behind. Tonight, though, on ESPN, one writer commented that the Twins still believe they can catch the White Sox if they can just land Alfonso Soriano. Sure. They just lost again and are now 13 1/2 games back with 59 to play. The rumored trade is Bret Boone, J. C. Romero, and Kyle Lohse to the Rangers for Soriano. I hope it goes through, because it would sink the Twins and help Texas, a doubly good thing for a North Texas resident who is a White Sox fan.

53-24: Everybody Have Fun Tonight

2005-06-30T18:31:00.000-05:00

Johnny Mostil is headed for a much needed vacation beside a quiet lake in the middle of nowhere, but he goes on the vacation with his beloved Sox 29 games over .500 at 53-24 after 77 games after Freddy Garcia dominated the Detroit Tigers 6-1 on Thursday afternoon. The Sox head to Oakland with what Jim Baker in Baseball Prospectus called an 'unscre[w]able pooch'. And unscrewable it is -- no team has blown a 10-game lead in, well, forever. Even Torii Hunter conceded the race a few games ago.

So now comes the question: is the Jason Schmidt rumor the Chicago Tribune is promoting actually true? Now, Jason's having some trouble this year, but man, he is one hell of a pitcher and acquiring him would be the end of worrying about the Cubans.

The White Sox were 18-7 in June.

51-24: In the Humdrum

2005-06-29T17:57:00.000-05:00

The White Sox, with a 9 1/2 game lead, are making the season, well, pleasantly humdrum...

Mark Buerhle has been a good pitcher for several years, but so far he's having the best season of his career. Last night was no exception to his recent record as he shut down the Tigers, letting in just one run, and notched his 10th win against only one loss. (His only loss, of course, was the ESPN Sunday Night game against Santana early in April.) He needed some help with the White Sox flailing a little against Nate Robertson (I blame hangovers from Maddux and Prior), but Dustin Hermanson stranded a leadoff I-Rod triple in the ninth to hold on to a 2-1 win.

Tonight the Sox run Brandon McCarthy to the hill. McCarthy has had a decent start against the Cubs and two awful starts against the Rangers and Royals. It seems it doesn't matter which AAA starter the Sox bring up these last two years, he's going to post a 9.00 ERA. Perhaps that says something about the White Sox upper-level pitching coaching in the minors?

The Twins lost already today, in part because their confounded stadium bit them and Shannon Stewart lost a fly ball. McCarthy doesn't need to put in a brilliant start. Let's see what happens now.

50-24: Not about us

2005-06-27T18:40:00.000-05:00

I have read a few -- not many, but a few -- comments about how inept the White Sox were on Sunday. It's not about the White Sox. Mark Prior was unbelievably good, and this is not something new, he's done it before a few times. I read complaints about how the Sox tried to hit everything out of the park, and how they should have gone the other way. Let me say this: contrary to what every baseball broadcaster tells you, opposite field hitting is not a guarantee of success. When the other team plays you to hit the other way, you're going to make outs. Prior took away the pull hitting by his approach and the Cubs played defense to take away the other way. Game over.

Other quick remarks:

Cheat, who complains only mildly about the ineptness of the offense, also sensibly points out that "SmartBall" is a PR ploy.
Prior was brilliant, but you have to wonder if he'll make it through the season with a manager who treats him so cavalierly; that and his abominable luck seems to always get to him.
Yet another slightly bizarre effort to analyze the White Sox offense manages to get in the bizarre digs about the White Sox pitching being "non-normative". The Sox defense is better, which is reflected in their DER, but that can't explain a 1.3-run drop is runs scored against. So, it must be luck. Hello! Hello! You can't really predict pitching. Pitchers learn new pitches. Pitchers adjust to situations. Batters hit differently in close games than in blowouts. You can predict hitting reasonably well, but pitching may simply never be predictable. What will Garland's ERA be in 2006? I have no idea -- and neither do you, and neither, I suspect, does anybody -- not close enough to be truly useful. You won't read that a lot of places because a lot of people are trying to make money convincing you that they can indeed predict pitcher performance.
Why, exactly, doesn't A. J. Pierzynski get as much credit as I think is due? Maybe that 1.3 runs has something to do with getting two new catchers in the game? Is it a possibility at least?

50-23: How I wish it would rain down, down on me...

2005-06-25T18:22:00.000-05:00

Greg Maddux stymied the White Sox on a Saturday afternoon and Jose Contreras struggled early to put the team in a big hole in a 6-2 loss to end the eight-game streak. In the top of the first, a bunt single, a couple of walks and a bomb pegged the Cubs to a 4-0 lead. Back to back homers in the second drew the Sox to 4-2, and Joe Crede just missed a two-run shot later in the inning, but that was all for the White Sox, whose offense crawled into a shell the rest of the game. So the eight-game streak is gone and the Sox, last I heard, had Prior to contend with tomorrow.

The Twins must have been watching, they posted a quick three on Milwaukee in the first. If they win, they'll be -- gasp -- only 9 1/2 games behind! Take cover!

50-22: Here comes the feeling...

2005-06-25T12:43:00.000-05:00

After completing two 5-1 Regicides and a 12-2 laugher over the Cubs, the Sox find themselves with a 10 1/2 game lead after 72 games. The Twins aren't quite done yet, but they have wandered aimlessly, shell-shocked, for the last couple of weeks. Certainly nobody except the drunkest Pale Hose crank would have predicted a Secretariat-like lead at this point in the season.

Just some thoughts:

Sox send Contreras and Garland against Maddux and, a head-scratcher, Prior for the last two Close Encounters. Prior is one of the great pitching talents of the decade, and I don't get asking him to pitch again four weeks after suffering a slight bone fracture.
One presumes that once Frank's leg is 100% he'll stop trying to hit everything into Lake Michigan, but it's been fun, hasn't it?
I think we all know how the Everett/Thomas thing is working out, and I think most of us Soxfans like it.
The latest negativity buzz from the well of endless South Side paranoia is that Podsednik's getting picked off too much. One thing about White Sox fans -- if there's a speck of a possible problem, they'll be all over it and ignore everything good. I call it the Mike Squires Effect: let's overreact to some marginalia and wound the whole team.
Latest rumor is Ted Lilly might be coming over to serve as the swingman. But for whom? Keep your eyes peeled for Kenny's Wild Bazaar, something always happens about this time of year.

47-22: Breathe

2005-06-21T19:57:00.000-05:00

Two more slightly improbable wins later...

I was worried sick about Brandon McCarthy earlier than most people, I suspect, because I was "watching" through GameCast. McCarthy wasn't getting any "Swinging Strikes", and that is just not a good sign because it meant he wasn't fooling anybody. Because the Sox pounded out 11 runs it didn't matter so much, but he's just got to dominate at least a few hitters...
You know right now the consensus preseason predictions would be dead on -- if the White Sox were cooperating. The Twins fan base seems to think their team is underperforming, but 38-29 (.567) is probably above what they should have expected, hardly out of line. The Indians at 37-31 are doing a little better than expected, the Tigers are at .500, and the Royals are 14 games back of the Twins. The White Sox are the only team not cooperating, having won about a dozen more games than most people expected. Shucks.
So far the Hunter Wendlestedt Effect hasn't popped up... let's hope it doesn't.

45-22: Wake me up before you Go-Go

2005-06-19T11:51:00.000-05:00

Last night's game was astonishing. Dominated for eight innings by Elmer Dessens and underappreciated Dodgers 2B Jeff Kent, the White Sox destroyed Yancy Brozhoban in stunning fashion to pull out a 5-3 miracle. With the White Sox trailing 3-1 and playing classic "Corpseball", Tad Iguchi walked, took second on a groundout, and scored on an Everett single. Willie Harris pinch-ran for Everett and stole second base and scored on a Rowand bouncing single up the middle. A. J. Pierzysnki worked the count full, fouled off several pitches, then -- improbably -- homered over the left center field fence to stun the Dodgers and win the game.

The end of this game was the classic mix of Go-Go (steals and hit- and-runs and singles) with 21st century White Sox 8th Air Force bombing.
Give Freddy Garcia credit. He had nothing and he held the Dodgers to three runs in 8 innings. They may have been depleted but all those walks should have cooked Garcia and they didn't.
Is AJP the heart and soul of this team?
The White Sox are just not fading. If they had built their 45-22 record by racing out to a flukey record and then hanging on, I'd be less confident. They're 7-3 over their last 10, 12-8 over their last 20, 18-12 over their last 30, and 25-15 over their last 40 games. This consistency suggests they aren't going to suddenly start playing .500 ball, and in fact, they aren't showing any signs of regression yet.

Not Make Believe

2005-06-18T16:07:00.000-05:00

Chris Widger is not a surprise.

Chris Widger has ALWAYS played well -- over his whole career -- in certain situations. He has always hit lefthanders far more than adequately (.277/.333/.502 career in 224 games and counting).

But, like Miguel Olivo, he's never been particularly good (or even "non-craptastic") against RHP-- he's a .231/.288/.368 lifetime hitter in that situation. He can't play regularly because of this. Tony LaRussa two years ago basically used him as backup, but usually only against RHP and he sucked, further hurting his rep with GMs who don't look deeper than the backs of the Topps cards on their bulletin boards.

Ozzie, who is NOT Jerry Manuel or Tony LaRussa, has cleverly used The Widge mostly against LHPs. Chris has responded, hitting .313/.353/.594 against them, basically in line with his career numbers. It is to be EXPECTED that he'll hit like that against LHPs -- because he always has!

Against RHPs he's at .296 this year but with almost all singles, and there I'll grant you the sample-size argument -- but he isn't hitting well even with that empty average, so his career expectations are still being fulfilled.

Considering that the White Sox' primary catcher is a lefthanded batter, and that Widge can hit LHP solidly, he's a pretty good guy to have around.

He has trouble keeping a job because he can't hit RHP well enough to keep a regular job, and many major league teams try to platoon their catchers based on the starting pitcher ("caddies"), which plays hell with the hitting for a guy with certain limited skills. Just because other managers, for a semi-idiotic reason, and despite a massive 180-point platoon split, made sure Widger has gotten almost 3/4 of his plate appearances when he's at a disadvantage doesn't mean he can't play.

The secret to being a good baseball manager is to find ways to use your players in situations where they are best. Ozzie's done that with Widger.

44-22: All I Wanna Do Is Have Some Fun

2005-06-18T13:13:00.000-05:00

Last night's 6-0 blanking of the depleted Dodgers featured Mark Buerhle scattering 8 hits in a complete-game shutout, Frank Thomas hitting a two-run insurance homer, and, most importantly, that rarest of events in the 2005 White Sox slate, a comfortable victory. Actually, they've been a lot more frequent since about the 30th of May.

The shutout was the third, combination or otherwise, for Mark Buehrle this year, who now sports a 2.67 ERA. The beginning of the 2004 season marks a key dividing line in Buehrle's career; he started striking more batters out, and since then, his ERA has been in the mid 3's. While Garland has had a marvelous first 40% of the year, there's little question Buehrle's the stopper on this team.
Frank Thomas now has five home runs in 28 at bats and could have a few more; he's just missed at least three more bombs. Not bad at all for somebody who hadn't played baseball in almost a year. When Thomas announced he was ready despite hitting under .200 in his rehab assignment, it scared the daylights out of me. I was wrong, he was ready.
Joe Crede looked like the player he was supposed to be all through April; he scuffled through May, and has hit OK so far through June (.275/.370/.625) but he's obviously slipped into another funk that will end, well, nobody knows when. His defense is keeping him in the lineup -- that, and a lack of suitable replacement. The only really readily "available" replacement is Red Joe Randa, who would be a bit of n offensive upgrade but probably not one worth the cost he would command. But, since when has that stopped Ken Williams?

43-22: Dance On A Volcano

2005-06-16T18:41:00.000-05:00

After a classic crawl-from-behind win at San Diego came two listless blowouts at the hands of the once-lowly (but now average) Arizona Diamondbacks. Wednesday night looked like another one when a couple of defensive slips and a bad home run game the Snakes a 6-1 lead going into the bottom of the fifth. Russ Ortiz, of all pitchers, was dominant, and the Sox looked doomed to their fourth loss in five games. You better start doing it right. The Twins are lurking...

Then the Diamonbacks fielders crated and so did Ortiz, and the Sox blew up all over the Arizonans. The Sox sneaked in a run on an error, then Frank homered... then the fun came. Royce Clayton botched two plays and Uribe and Konerko hit three-run homers in a ten-run outburst that turned a 6-2 game into a 12-6 game. Jon Garland, taken off the hook by the biggest Sox inning in several years, escaped with his 11th win.

Meanwhile, the invincible Twins bullpen let in three insurance runs in an 8-4 loss, and the White Sox found themselves staked back to a five-game lead. The magic continues...

41-20: Dustin The Wind [groan]

2005-06-12T00:02:00.000-05:00

Dustin Hermanson detonated spectacularly in San Diego, blowing his first save of the season, and spoiling a Buehrle masterpiece in a 2-1 loss. After a horrendous, gut-wrenching blown play and the plate call where Paul Konerko was incorrectly called out to end the top of the ninth with the Sox leading 1-0, with one out Ramon Hernandez homered to left, the Padres dinked in weak hit, a double, an intentional walk, and a single through the infield gave them a 2-1 win.

The White Sox struggled all night against a terrific-looking rookie pitcher with a nasty, Wilson-Alvarez-grade hook. It was one of those games where you just knew something bad was going to happen, and when Konerko was called out and Hernandez hit the home run, I thought I'd burst a blood vessel. Fortunately (he writes sarcastically), Hermanson royally blew up, and saved Johnny Mostil from his own bile.

Ozzie got caught in a tactical bind in the top of the 8th when Uribe walked and Crede singled to put runners on the corners with nobody out. Buehrle was due to hit, and Ozzie let him hit; he failed to get a bunt down in a situation normally crying for a pinch hitter. This bit of nastiness I blame on the perversity of making AL teams play by the NL's anachronistic rules more than any "mistake" by Ozzie -- pinch hitting would have been second-guessable as well -- and with Marte not available and Giles lurking third in the bottom of the inning, I guess I can see why he left Buehrle in. Podsednik took a questionable called third strike and Iguchi struck out too to snuff the rally.

A Quick One

2005-06-11T14:32:00.000-05:00

Ozzie Guillen's Sox have come to first place to stay.

To whip the Tribe and Royals good, and brush Detroit away.

To shoo the Yankees from the field and dust the Coors field team,

And make the bunts and hit 'n run and make the Angels scream.

While all us loyal Sox fans, when the evening game is done,

We surf around the Internet and have the most of fun,

Reading all the witch tales that those weblogs tell about

How the Twins are gonna get us if we don't watch out!

41-19: R-E-S-P-E-C-T

2005-06-11T13:43:00.000-05:00

While I was in China (really), the White Sox swept Colorado, pounding out 27 runs in three games at Coors field. When I returned from my oriental odyssey, they followed that up with a 4-2 series opener over San Diego. Still they get virtually no respect from some quarters.

Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus finally [$$$] 'fessed up that he'd blown his start-of-the-season prediction (20 games under .500). Of course he had to get in a slam that the team's actually a below .500 team, that they'll stagger in behind the Twins at around 85-90 wins, and that this may or may not be good enough for a wild card berth. The White Sox, who apparently don't spent the $34.95 a year to partake of Joe Sheehan's for-sale wisdom, promptly won their next three games in a row, including a merciless 15-run pounding, to get 22 games over .500 at the 60 game mark.

The Twins, of course, simultaneously lost two or four to fall 5 1/2 games back. The White Sox need more predictions like Joe Sheehan's. Go ahead, Joe. Write me a column about exactly why it is the White Sox can't ever reach the World Series. Save it for August or September, please. Then write me one about how the Yankees will never, ever, go into Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Over the last 20 games the White Sox are 13-7, following up a 16-4 first 20 games and 12-8 second 20 games. Where, exactly, is the slowdown, the regression to mediocrity that some people keep predicting? They regressed - to .600 baseball.

Two more in San Diego... then home.

36-18: Distant Early Warning...

2005-06-04T10:00:00.000-05:00

The White Sox survived a wild night by El Duque in front of a disappointing crowd to beat the Indians 6-4. The Sox put together a four-run first fueled in part by weird Cleveland defensive positioning and some outright crazy lucky, but the Indians topped that when Coco Crisp rang the foul pole with two on to tie the game. The Sox plated two in the bottom of the fifth with three singles, a wild pitch, and a sac fly. The Pale Hose played long-sequence ball with lots of singles and efficiently pushed across most of their baserunners. Neil Cotts and Hermanson sailed through the final three innings to nail down the win.

The stories recently, though, are off the field:

Frank Thomas didn't play again, despite publicly saying his hip flexor was healed, because of Everett's history against Cleveland pitcher Jake Westbrook. Naturally, this fuels all sorts of media discussion about there not being room for Frank, Frank being traded, Ozzie hating Frank, and (although I haven't read it) presumably about Frank's devotion to Darth Sidious or something equally silly. The Tribune, especially, seems fixated on how Frank doesn't fit in and how the White Sox would dearly love to dump him on some unsuspecting team. Sure. You know why this doesn't make sense? Because Frank not playing does nothing for his trade value, and because the only teams who would be interested are the White Sox' competitors. Still, where there's smoke there's often fire, and despite the fast start, there isn't a lot of evidence that the White Sox understand what wins baseball games. The 2005 Frank Thomas isn't the 1993 model Frank Thomas -- the horsepower is way down and the fuel economy also -- and Frank has to be thinking he needs to go out on top somehow to ensure Cooperstown. It's hard to disagree, seeing as how Trammell and Whitaker, who clearly belong there, aren't deemed worthy.
Joe Crede didn't hit again, stretching his slump to 6-for-61 according to the AP, and fueling some rumors about Eric Chavez being traded for Crede, McCarthy, and presumably Brian Anderson. Billy Beane denies it, Chavez denies it -- everybody denies it -- but it fits the Moneyball paradigm so look out. Chavez is signed for $11M a year for a long time, but he's hitting only .230 with 5 home runs 1/3 of the way through the season, and the A's rebuilding plan may need some architectural changes. I can't see how Beane would be the slightest bit interested in Crede, who doesn't play ball the way they like, but McCarthy would definitely get his engine jumpstarted, and so would Brian Anderson -- and Frank Thomas, old as he is, is a poster boy for their philosophy. So, the rumor makes some baseball sense, fits the MOs of the two GMs... and smacks around the future, a White Sox trademark in the Kenny Williams era. The fly in the ointment is steroids. I don't have any evidence that Chavez was juiced, but when any player suffers a substantial falloff in production this season, you have to worry that he was an abuser.